Copper market production capacity has not yet been put into the spot is still tight

The previous warehouse receipts continued to decline on the 12th, although the spot market premium declined, but still maintained a good premium, futures were unattractive, warehouse receipts continued to decline
.
On the 12th, imports still maintained a loss, and the loss expanded again compared with the previous trading day, but the current range is still not enough for exports, continue to restrict exports, and Yangshan copper premium continues to remain stable
.

On the 12th, LME stocks continued to decline, and total stocks have been reduced to below
120,000 tons.
In addition, due to the environmental protection upgrade of Chilean smelters, the spot status of foreign markets has not changed, so LME inventories are still expected to decline; In addition, Chile's environmental protection may mainly affect LME stocks, and affect China's refined copper imports, therefore, supporting the premium of the bonded zone
.

Previously, downstream, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November 2018, automobile production was 2.
4984 million units, an increase of 7.
02% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 18.
89%; Sales were 2,547,800 units, up 7.
05% m/m and down 13.
86%
y/y.
From January to November, vehicle production and sales were 25,325,200 units and 25,419,700 units, down 2.
59% y/y and 1.
65%
y/y.

In the short term, before China's new smelting capacity is not put into use, the spot market is still tight, in addition, due to the interference of foreign refined copper production capacity, the short-term supply of refined copper around China is still tight, China's refined copper supply is relatively loose, but due to export factors, domestic refined copper is also tight; Moreover, it is estimated that with the shutdown of Chile's smelting capacity, spot tension may further intensify, and copper spot will continue to maintain a strong pattern; However, the environmental protection upgrade of Chilean copper smelters, or the last round of support for copper prices, once landed, copper prices may end the long-term consolidation situation
.
Expectations for the future market are bearish
.

In the medium term, the rigid increase in global copper concentrate supply in the next 5 years is relatively small, and the elastic increase mainly depends on the price, and although the refining capacity is more put in, but limited by the supply of copper concentrate, the actual supply increment is not enough to make copper prices fall again, so the medium-term copper price bottom is expected to be obvious
.

In addition, due to the interference of foreign refined copper production capacity, the short-term supply of refined copper around China is still tight, and China's refined copper supply is relatively loose, but due to export factors, domestic refined copper is also tight; Moreover, it is estimated that with the shutdown of Chile's smelting capacity, spot tension may further intensify, and copper spot will continue to maintain a strong pattern; However, the environmental protection upgrade of Chilean copper smelters, or the last round of support for copper prices, once landed, copper prices may end a long-term consolidation situation, and the future market is expected to be empty
.