Copper price low shock finishing repair The rebound height is limited

London copper bottomed out last
week.
The average price of LME copper in the first four trading days was 7328.
25 US dollars / ton, up 31 US dollars / ton per day; Last week's average price was $7351.
5/ton, down $23.
25/ton, or 0.
32%.

On the supply side, growth in end-side supply is generally certain, with the Quellaveco mine starting to produce copper concentrate and LasBambas copper production moderated, and Fitch expects global copper production to remain strong
in the coming years.
Domestic smelters have high profits, and the operating rate of smelters has increased under the stimulation of high profits, and the output of refined copper has continued to recover
.
Although some companies at the smelting end still enter the maintenance, production will continue to grow in July, and supply will tend to be loose
in the second half of the year.
Among them, the output of refined copper in June was 932,000 tons, an increase of 10.
3%
year-on-year.

In terms of demand, the current overall domestic consumption is still weak, among which copper pipe companies due to the decline in demand due to the off-season of air conditioning production, it may be difficult to improve
significantly.
Coupled with the fear of decline in downstream consumption, the weakening of replenishment of some enterprises, and the repeated increase of the epidemic affecting copper consumption, market confidence remains unstable
.
The recent release of real estate data has kept the market cautious, increasingly reflecting the optimism of the real estate industry, which is still a significant drag on copper consumption
.

In terms of spot, under the sharp decline in copper prices, the demand of receiving parties was gradually released, and replenishment increased
.
However, the downstream fear of decline is the cause, once again returned to prudence, procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, superimposed by high temperature and high pressure weather affected by the off-season effect is obvious, the upper and lower trading performance is deadlocked, spot transactions are weak, the overall consumption is no longer vigorous, and the performance is unsatisfactory
.

In terms of inventory, Shanghai copper stocks fell last week, with a cumulative decrease of 20,982 tons to 50,350 tons, down 29.
41%
from last week.
London copper stocks recovered last week, accumulating an increase of 3,500 tonnes to 133925 tonnes, or 2.
68%.

Shanghai copper rebounded from the decline last week, but the height was limited
.
Sentiment stabilized after the recent macro pressure was released, and the non-ferrous metals sector rebounded to recover some of its losses after the market
plunged.
However, from the US housing sales data, the worry of global recession can not be underestimated, and copper fundamentals have not changed, supply and demand weak pattern continues, although there is the stimulation of the automotive industry and photovoltaic industry, but China's housing market recession on copper consumption drag is obvious, as well as downstream fear of decline and lack of market confidence, Shanghai copper soaring market is only short-lived, continue to narrow range shock repair
.
At present, the off-season effect is obvious, the spot contradiction is not prominent, and the overall macro sentiment fluctuates, thus continuing to look
at the bearish idea.