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On Monday, Shanghai copper first rose and then declined, the intraday gains narrowed, the main month 2211 contract opened at 63700 yuan / ton, the daily close at 63080 yuan / ton, up 140 yuan / ton, or 0.
22%.
Macro pressure is unabated, the Fed's monetary policy has no signs of turning, and copper inventories in London and Shanghai have soared, inhibiting copper prices to continue to have upward momentum, and Shanghai copper closed slightly higher
during the day.
In terms of spot, on October 17, the trading price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 64930-64970 yuan / ton, down 180 yuan / ton; Liter 1640-liter 1680, up 1680 yuan / ton
.
The intraday spot market transaction atmosphere is weak, the delivery and exchange month, the monthly difference widens, the premium water is higher to inhibit downstream consumption, the receiver chooses to wait and see the on-demand purchase, and the transaction situation is biased
.
In terms of inventories, as of October 15, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks decreased by 2,700 tons, or 1.
85%, to 142,950 tons; As of October 14, the previous Shanghai copper inventory increased by 33,287 tons, worth 63,746 tons, an increase of 109.
28%; As of October 17, the warehouse receipt of Shanghai copper futures in the previous period was 72,612 tons, an increase of 47,024 tons
over the previous day.
On the supply side, Chile's announcement that it will permanently close copper stopes directly related to the giant sinkhole in northern Chile has heightened market concerns about supply; In September, the supply of refined copper increased, and the output will run above 900,000 tons, processing fees showed a rebound trend, refinery raw material warehouse, port inventory was high; However, the disturbance of overseas copper mines has limited the supply of copper concentrate, and there is still a gap in the domestic industrial chain, and spot supply still appears tight
.
In terms of demand, the real estate sector is still the biggest stumbling block to copper consumption, coupled with the impact of epidemic factors, downstream consumption has recovered slowly, but the domestic social financing margin cover, corporate financing shows an improvement state, infrastructure continues to be weak, downstream cable operating rate rebounds, photovoltaic and new energy vehicle data performance is good
.
On the whole, the macro level continues to be suppressed and the futures market atmosphere is empty, and it is difficult for Shanghai copper to continue to strengthen, but the low inventory state continues, the spot premium expansion and the industrial chain still have gaps to slightly support
copper prices.
At present, it is still expected to be in the peak season, which still has a certain boost to downstream consumption, and with the support of the high-growth development of domestic photovoltaic, infrastructure and new energy vehicle data, copper consumption has improved marginally, but the recent outbreak of the epidemic in many places in China has had an impact
on demand performance.
Therefore, the momentum of Shanghai copper is insufficient, and the short-term copper price trend is difficult to say
.
