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Trade Service
Copper prices walked out of the roller coaster last week, and the root cause has little to do with fundamentals, mainly dominated by investor sentiment
.
The surge in copper prices this round is not trendy, and there is a high probability that there will be a correction
in the short term.
On the macro front, overseas, the US CPI continued to explode in January, hitting a 40-year high, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike at the Fed's interest rate meeting rose again, which also offset the previous actions of Fed officials to calm the market, and market risk appetite may be suppressed
.
In addition, the geography of Russia and Ukraine once caused market panic, but it has two sides, one is to worry about suppressing risk appetite, and the other is to worry about the greater disturbance on the supply side under sanctions against Russian trade
.
Domestically, social finance made a good start in January, and the escort of steady growth continued to boost the bulk of the market, but from the performance of A-shares, the risk appetite of funds has not been significantly improved
.
On the supply side, the February production data is expected to decline slightly month-on-month, except for the decrease in the number of days in February, the maintenance of a smelter in the south involved more than 40,000 tons, which put some pressure
on supply.
From the perspective of inventory, 86,600 tons of accumulation during and the first week after the Spring Festival were accumulated, slightly higher than last year's 75,100 tons, but production expectations declined, and the market was worried that the total accumulation was not as expected
.
However, from the perspective of the refined waste price difference, it is in a high position, and the substitution of copper scrap is further improved
.
In terms of demand, the market paid attention to the start of work after the holiday, and the resumption of work was good, but the company has produced last year's orders, and this year is affected by price disturbances, and the wait-and-see mood is strong, and there is pressure
on follow-up orders.
Looking ahead to this week's market, copper prices may still be difficult to improve, mainly because macro expectations have fermented, and macro facts are as far back as March
.
On the demand side of fundamentals, it is difficult to improve in the short and medium term
.