Copper prices rushed back down and the probability of short-term shock operation is relatively large

During the weekend, the official domestic manufacturing PMI data was released below the boom and bust line, and the subsequent European and American manufacturing PMI data hit a two-year low, and the economic data was not conducive to the rebound of copper prices, which gradually fell after rushing higher on Monday; Copper prices rebounded
on Friday as mining giant Glencore said it would cut production of the metal zinc on Thursday as the energy crisis once again provided hype momentum.

On the macro front, Fed officials reiterated their expectations of maintaining interest rate hikes, and the market focused on Friday night's non-farm payrolls data to adjust forecasts for subsequent rate hikes, which would affect the dollar and commodity prices
.
On the other hand, the recent unexpected surge in crude oil inventories has caused crude oil prices to fall to the low level of the last half year, and if there is a breakdown, it will form a bearish sentiment
for copper prices.

In the market, spot copper rose 40 yuan during the week, and good copper rose 240 yuan
on Friday.
Copper imports increased during the week, the price spread narrowed the following month, and the premium was lowered
from last week.
After the market stabilized, the downstream buying just needed to enter the market, the holders of the price superimposed on the low inventory, the increase discount under the water adjustment is limited
.
In terms of import profit and loss, the exchange rate was relatively stable this week, and the import profit window continued to open, and now remained around
300 yuan / ton.

From the demand side, the domestic power grid and new energy demand are considerable, and it is still difficult to be optimistic
about real estate and related industries.
August is the macro window period, long and short are intertwined, and the probability of copper price shock operation is large
.