Crude oil futures jumped on fears of an escalating standoff between Russia and the West

International crude oil futures rose sharply on Monday (Feb.
21) as the standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine escalated, raising fears that an already tight crude oil supply could be further disrupted
.

The April contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) was up $2.
62 at $92.
83 a barrel
as of 1:30 p.
m.
ET.

The global benchmark April Brent crude closed up $3.
03 at $96.
57 a barrel
.
It hit $96.
78 intraday, the highest price
since September 2014.

On Monday (February 21), Russian media quoted military reports that Russian forces on Monday killed five saboteurs
who broke into the country's southwestern border from Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron said earlier on Monday that U.
S.
President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in principle to hold a summit on Ukraine, but the Kremlin said that although there was a possibility of a summit, there was no plan
.

On Monday (February 21), Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognizing two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent sovereign republics
.
The European Union has previously warned that it will consider sanctions
against Russia if it recognizes the independence of these regions.

Analysts said crude oil rose strongly again on Feb.
21 as optimism about a summit between Biden and Putin faded
.
If Russia launches a military offensive against Ukraine, as Britain and the United States have been warning recently, Brent crude will easily break through the $100 mark
.

The OPEC alliance's difficulty in achieving expected production targets also highlights the current supply-demand imbalance
in the global crude oil market.

OPEC ministers said on Sunday that the alliance should stick to its current agreement to increase output
by 400,000 b/d a month.

Iran's possible return to the world crude oil market has limited the increase in crude oil prices
.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said there had been significant progress
on Monday in talks to revive Iran's 2015 nuclear deal.
On Friday, a senior EU official said it was very, very close to reaching a deal
.
If a deal is reached, sanctions on Iranian crude exports would be lifted, potentially helping 1 million b/d of Iranian crude return to global markets
.
However, given the specific process of implementing the agreement, Iranian crude oil may not return to the world market
until later this year.

Position data from the U.
S.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that funds reduced their net long positions
in crude oil for the second consecutive week last week.
As of February 15, 2022, speculative funds held net long positions of 291,381 contracts in the WTI crude oil futures and options market in New York, down 4,768 contracts
from a week ago.
Last week it was a net sale of 7,723 lots
.