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    Home > Chemicals Industry > Petrochemical News > Crude oil runs under pressure for a short time

    Crude oil runs under pressure for a short time

    • Last Update: 2022-11-15
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    After the National Day, oil prices came under pressure to the downward pressure due to the monthly CPI data released by the United States and the monthly reports of IEA, EIA and OPEC institutions to lower their global crude oil demand forecasts, and are currently temporarily supported
    near the moving average.
    In the long run, geopolitical factors and OPEC production cuts have made the supply side strong, but from the perspective of curbing inflation, oil prices may fall below the short-term moving average
    in the later stage.

    With two years to go until the 2024 U.
    S.
    presidential election, the latest polls show that U.
    S.
    President Joe Biden doesn't get a high
    percentage of the vote.
    On the one hand, the US CPI rose 8.
    2% year-on-year in September, a slight decline from a 40-year high of 9.
    1% in June, but still exceeded market expectations; on the other hand, the consumer confidence index in the United States and the euro area fell to the lowest level in this century in the third quarter, the slowdown in global economic growth curbed diesel industry demand, and high oil prices curbed gasoline consumer demand, and the three major institutions have lowered their global crude oil demand forecasts
    .

    From the supply side, OPEC+ exceeded expectations in the monthly meeting on October 5 to reduce production by 2 million barrels / day, the production reduction cooperation agreement was extended to the end of 2023, the largest production reduction since 2020, Brent crude oil at $80 / barrel has strong support, corresponding to domestic INE crude oil at 600 yuan / barrel is supported
    .

    From the formal implementation of the production reduction agreement by OPEC+ in May 2020 to September 2022, the implementation rate of production cuts in OPEC+ 10 countries has exceeded 200%, and the implementation rate of production cuts in some countries has far exceeded 100%.

    Among them, Saudi Arabia increased by 82,000 b/d in September compared with August, and later according to the requirements of the meeting, Saudi Arabia's production from November to December needs to be reduced by 420,000 b/d
    compared with August.

    According to data from the same period last year, Saudi Arabia's domestic demand for refined oil products in November-December 2021 decreased by about 300,000 barrels compared with August, so although the meeting cut was large, considering the seasonal adjustment dynamic balance demand of oil producing countries, the substantial impact of OPEC+ production cuts on crude oil supply may need to be further considered
    .
    The next OPEC monthly meeting will be held on December 5, when the crude oil supply pattern will be further clarified
    .

    After the OPEC meeting on August 3 failed to increase production significantly as expected by US President Biden, the United States resumed Iranian nuclear negotiations
    the next day.
    Although the talks were again stalled in September, the United States may resume negotiations with Iran at a later stage, once the relationship between the United States and Iran makes greater progress, this part of the supply may make up for OPEC's share
    of the production reduction after Iran's first 1.
    5 million b/d is put on the market.

    In addition, the deadline for EU sanctions against Russia is December 5, and as the time approaches, the impact of Russia's share of production cuts on the market is gradually becoming clear
    .
    Russian crude oil seaborne export data shows that although Russia's crude oil exports to Europe decreased sharply in May, after four months of adjustment, Russia's total exports remain stable, and the actual impact of exports from the EU and other countries to Russia will be limited
    .
    The United States has also pushed for a price cap on Russian oil exports, with Russia saying it can offset the impact
    of price caps through production cuts.

    Finally, U.
    S.
    crude oil production averaged 12.
    05 million b/d in September, down 25,000 b/d
    from August, due to hurricane impact and production cuts in offshore fields.
    However, under the trend of high and upward trend in the number of active crude oil rigs in the United States, the number of active crude oil rigs increased by 8 to 610 in the week ended October 14 compared with the previous week
    .
    There is a possibility
    of marginal increase in U.
    S.
    crude oil production.
    U.
    S.
    crude oil supply is expected to ease the global
    crude oil crunch.

    After experiencing the peak of summer consumption for driving travel, inventory data from strong consumption areas represented by the United States show that crude oil inventories have accumulated and Asian refined oil inventories have returned to the historical normal range
    .
    In the week ended Oct.
    7, EIA data showed U.
    S.
    crude inventories rose by 9.
    879 million barrels to 439 million barrels
    .
    From the data of recent years, US crude oil inventories showed a seasonal upward trend
    in the fourth quarter.

    In the fourth quarter, as the weather gradually cools, European energy supply problems are still likely to disrupt the market
    .
    At present, European refined oil inventories are showing a low operating trend, and the ratio of ICE heating oil to Brent crude oil has reached a record high, focusing on whether European energy supply can be effectively solved
    .

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