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Recently, PVC fundamentals have performed weakly, the start of construction is high in the same period, demand is greatly affected by the epidemic, the operating rate of downstream products fell by 24.
6% year-on-year, profiles fell by 40% year-on-year, upstream inventory pressure is large, and the fundamentals are short-term
.
The epidemic has not been truly alleviated, and the expectation of demand replenishment has not been fulfilled
.
However, the latest policy is expected to be positive, and the intensity of attention is large, and PVC may gradually stabilize
.
The operating rates of calcium carbide method and ethylene method were 80.
63% and 79.
85% respectively, and the start of construction declined with the arrival of spring inspection, and the supply decreased
slightly.
Demand is still weak, and the number of downstream orders is average
.
According to statistics, the total inventory of East and South China is 323,650 tons, and the destocking speed is expected to slow down
.
The absolute level of profits of PVC production enterprises is still very considerable, and the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide method and ethylene method profit are 2960 yuan / ton and 3004 yuan / ton
respectively.
Export support remains, and the number of orders remains high, but the market generally expects a gradual weakening
in the future.
The drive is unknown and the valuation is on the high
side.
The trend of the disk has not yet formed a trend, and PVC has not left the shock pattern
.
The main contradiction point of the current market is still on the demand side, the export market situation is generally good and is expected to continue, the main variable is still in the domestic downstream demand, so the operation trend of domestic demand will be the key
to the follow-up.
Recently, there has been good news at the macro level to stimulate the economy and increase social investment and financing, which has played a certain role
in boosting market confidence.
Next, we need to pay attention to whether the downstream demand after the epidemic is eased can be effectively repaired under strong expectations, and whether it can provide certain support for market expectations and trigger a gradual rebound
in the market.
The current disk technical support is at 8500 and the pressure level is 8800
.
