Demand reality is relatively weak Copper price center of gravity may have downside risks

Macro, the eurozone announced on Thursday the end of the era of quantitative easing, planning to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July, hinting at a 50 basis point rate hike in September, sharply raising inflation expectations; The market pays attention to the US CPI data on Friday night, when inflation peaks will directly affect the pace of the Fed's subsequent interest rate hikes, so far the dollar index rebounded to stand at the 103 mark, and the performance of external metals was under pressure
.

In terms of the market, spot copper rose 160 yuan last week, and good copper rose 170 yuan
on Friday.
Shanghai resumed work at the beginning of the month, imported copper inflows increased, and downstream buying gradually recovered, but the overall supply was abundant, and the premium was gradually lowered; At the same time, the phenomenon of repeated pledge of aluminum ingots was exposed, and the surrounding metals were at risk, which limited the market trading atmosphere
.
In terms of import profit and loss, the RMB depreciated slightly last week, and the import profit window was closed again, and the gap is now around
200 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, copper prices were at a premium during the week due to disturbances in major copper producing countries in South America and low global explicit inventories
.
On the demand side, the domestic focus on economic reopening, and macro-favorable policies are frequent, and the market still has expectations
.
However, limited by the relatively weak reality, it is difficult to support copper prices to get out of a clear upward trend
.
In terms of inventory, London inventories continued to decline, supporting copper prices, and domestically, Shanghai resumed work at the beginning of the month, and consumption is expected
to pick up.

In summary, it is expected that the main force of Shanghai copper will maintain a volatile pattern next week, and close to the Fed's June interest rate decision next Thursday, the center of gravity of copper prices may be downside risks
.