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Recently, the chemical sector was affected by the 5.
6% rise in crude oil, the overall increase in positions turned red, overseas automobile and diesel profits were high, crude oil is easy to rise and fall, but the domestic epidemic continues to impact, thermal coal fluctuates around 800 yuan, thermal coal enters the off-season, PVC overall action is not strong, pay attention to the previous upper pressure level of 9500 yuan
.
In terms of macro, the scale of M2 and social financing at the end of March exceeded expectations, and the increase in new loans and social financing in March exceeded expectations
.
It indicates that there is relatively plenty of money in the market
.
The government work report has set an economic growth target of around 5.
5% for 2022, and the recent uncertainty is more complex than expected, and the achievement of this target will require stronger easing policies
.
Recently, the real estate policy has continued to relax, and the purchase and sales restrictions in strong second-tier cities have been relaxed, and the fiscal policy may exceed expectations
.
In terms of raw materials, affected by environmental protection inspectors, the start of blue charcoal in Shenmu area declined, and it was heard that 4 enterprises stopped production, and the implementation of the production reduction policy needs to be continuously tracked; The supply of calcium carbide is loose, and some enterprises with poor shipments have slightly reduced prices, and Wuhai calcium carbide has dropped to 4150 yuan / ton; Ethylene prices fell
.
In terms of demand, 87 of the top 100 cities, accounting for 70% of the national GDP, have adopted certain control measures due to epidemic prevention, and other cities have been increasing in the intensity of control in the past half month, and economic activities have been affected
to a certain extent.
The overall decline in downstream product starts this week, of which pipe starts weakened month-on-month, and profile starts increased slightly month-on-month; At present, the downstream terminal is still dominated by rigid demand, the transaction is general, and the weekly trading volume continues to be at a low level; In terms of exports, affected by the Ramadan month in Southeast Asia and the decline in external prices, exports weakened seasonally, and export orders declined
.
In terms of inventory, the actual terminal demand is still poor, coupled with the seasonality of exports weakening, and the recent sample inventory has turned from destocking in March to accumulation
.
On the whole, the PVC supply side postponed maintenance due to factors such as good profits, and the supply continued to be loose; On the demand side, domestic demand is still weak, and exports are seasonally weak; The near-term market quickly switches
between reality and expectations.
Strategically recommended wait-and-see or interval operations
.
