Domestic first! The "oil brand" is stirring up the United States

As the US midterm elections approached in November, high inflation, especially high oil prices, continued to cause voter dissatisfaction, and the Biden administration began to make
moves one after another.
Reuters reported on the 20th that Biden announced the release of 15 million barrels of strategic oil reserves
that week.
In his speech, he acknowledged that high oil prices cause "American families to suffer.
"
At the same time, Biden took aim at US energy companies, calling on them to increase production capacity
.
The statement was immediately opposed
by the American Petroleum Institute.
Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, responded to Biden that the move is putting the United States in a very dangerous situation
.
According to Bloomberg, the White House has asked the U.
S.
Department of Energy to analyze the possible impact
of banning exports of refined oil products such as gasoline and diesel in the United States.
Middle East media said that Biden's plan can not achieve the purpose of curbing oil prices, and banning oil exports will only hurt the United States itself, but not OPEC countries
.

15 million barrels is not enough for a day

Reuters said that the Biden administration began to release strategic crude oil reserves in May 2022 to stabilize oil prices, with a total release of a record 180 million barrels
.
After releasing the above-mentioned 15 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves, this round of release plans has been completed
.
Biden also said the administration would work to increase U.
S.
oil production without delaying the transition
to clean energy.
When the price of oil falls to $70 per barrel, the U.
S.
government will buy back oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
.
As of the 21st, U.
S.
WTI crude oil price futures closed at $
85 per barrel.

Biden's latest energy policy has been criticized
by many lawmakers.
For a long time, Republicans have advocated increasing domestic oil extraction, while the Biden administration has advocated green energy and controlling oil extraction
.
"Releasing a large strategic petroleum reserve is a short-sighted and dangerous option that jeopardizes America's energy security at a critical time of global uncertainty," said Kansas Republican Senator Jerry Moran.

Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming said on social media: "The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was created in response to the nation's
energy crisis, not the Democratic election crisis.
" Biden's dismal approval rating is not a valid reason
to continue plundering our country's oil reserves.
”

"Oil prices will not fall because of this", some netizens believe that Biden's statement is a "100% voting gimmick"
.
Some Americans say that 15 million barrels of oil is not even enough for Americans for a day
.
According to CNBC, the United States consumes an average of about 20 million barrels of oil
per day.

Lu Xiang, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters on the 23rd that the highest inflation in the United States in 40 years has been running at a high level for several months and it is difficult to form an inflection point
.
Under such circumstances, it is difficult to see the effect
of stabilizing prices by releasing strategic oil reserves.
The Biden administration knows it can't do it, but in fact it is using a political posture to pursue political interests
in the upcoming midterm elections.
"The Biden administration has run out of a more effective way to reverse inflation
other than to raise interest rates sharply.
" Lu Xiang believes that Biden needs to make such a political gesture to win the hearts and minds
of the people.
Although it has not been very useful, it is still reluctant to give up its efforts
.

Consider restricting oil exports

The so-called strategic petroleum reserve is one of the effective ways to cope with short-term oil supply shocks (large-scale reduction or interruption), serve national energy security, and ensure the continuous supply of crude oil
.
At the same time, it has the function of smoothing the abnormal fluctuation of
domestic oil prices.

The International Energy Agency requires member countries to cover 90 days of net imports from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and the United States must hold at least about 315 million barrels of oil reserves
.
U.
S.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories have fallen to 405.
1 million barrels, just about 22 days of U.
S.
consumption and the lowest in
nearly 38 years, according to data released by the U.
S.
Energy Information Administration as of Oct.
14.
According to the current release plan, U.
S.
oil reserves will continue to decline
.
This will pose a serious test of
America's ability to respond to energy security in emergency situations.
Many media in the United States believe that under this circumstance, Biden wants to further release oil reserves in political selfish considerations
.

Egypt's "Finance Daily" reported that the time for the United States to introduce its policy of banning oil exports is getting closer, and industry insiders estimate that Biden may implement this policy
before the midterm elections in November.
This approach is clearly "too aggressive" and is widely opposed by the energy industry, which believes that it will have many negative effects and shocks
.
According to the report, two people close to the Biden administration revealed that the White House is currently considering "restricting fuel exports to keep more gasoline and diesel in the United States.
"
But the idea of temporary export controls has also sparked divisions
within the U.
S.
government.
Biden's top energy adviser advocated support for new export controls, while U.
S.
energy officials and members of the oil community expressed concern
.
Many experts have spoken out that "restricting fuel exports could lead to higher prices in parts of the United States, especially in the import-dependent Northeast
.
" ”

The Saudi "Economic News" website analysis believes that the United States further releases oil reserves and implements policies such as banning oil exports, which have nothing to do with OPEC and OPEC+, "the latter will not be affected, on the contrary, it can reduce OPEC's competitive pressure, maintain the stability of oil prices and the situation
favorable to OPEC and OPEC+.
" ”

'Cruel and contradictory'

Whether it is continuing to release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or considering a ban on oil exports, US energy policy is attracting more and more questions and criticism
.
The Washington Observer criticized Biden's move as a way to save the political fate of the Democratic Party, at the cost of emptying the US strategic reserves
.
The Forbes magazine article questioned that Biden's political purpose of reducing the US strategic crude oil reserve by more than 200 million barrels in less than a year is extremely dangerous
.
"American Observer Network" published an article criticizing that in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the European allies of the United States have been burdened with abandoning Russian energy, and the United States' ban on oil exports is completely contrary to US foreign policy, which is "cruel and contradictory"
.

People in the US energy industry believe that banning oil exports will not only not stabilize domestic oil prices, but will further push up prices, which will cause global market turmoil and harm US national interests
.
The industry pointed out that restricting exports will reduce industry inventories and discourage the enthusiasm of oil refining in the United States, and the resulting setback in production capacity will be transmitted to the market, resulting in higher prices and insufficient
supply.
At the same time, the international market, which has lost the supply of U.
S.
oil, will also be volatile, which will lead to further higher
prices in the international market.

Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute at Xiamen University, told reporters that the oil reserves released by the United States are too small compared to the huge global market, which may have a short-term impact on market prices, but cannot influence the operating trend of global oil prices.

”

Lin Boqiang believes that OPEC
plays a key role in global oil prices.
On October 5, OPEC+ announced production cuts, and international oil prices rose for five consecutive times
in the short term.
Lin Boqiang believes that although the release of the strategic oil reserve by the United States can hedge the expectation of rising oil prices to a certain extent, with the rapid decline of the US strategic oil reserve, it will constrain the long-term continuous investment of the United States, and its policy of intervening in global oil prices is difficult to form long-term effects
.
In addition, the Biden administration clearly knows that the release of reserves cannot achieve the expected goal, but still insists on this behavior, the main purpose of which is to form the goal
of increasing supply and suppressing oil prices from market psychology.
But for now, this intervention to change the operation of oil prices by influencing market expectations has little effect
.