Domestic refined oil prices ushered in "two consecutive declines"

The National Development and Reform Commission released a news release on July 12 that according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market, according to the current refined oil price formation mechanism, from 24:00 on July 12, 2022, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products, the same below) will be reduced by 360 yuan and 345 yuan
per ton respectively.
Equivalent to the price increase, No.
92 gasoline, No.
95 gasoline and No.
0 diesel were reduced by 0.
28 yuan, 0.
3 yuan and 0.
29 yuan
respectively.
This round of price adjustment is the third time in the year, and it is also the first time that it has "two consecutive declines"
.
After the implementation of this round of price adjustment policies, No.
92 gasoline in most parts of the country returned to the "8 yuan era"
.

Zhuo Chuang Information refined oil analyst Wang Xueqin told the Futures Daily reporter that in the early stage of this pricing cycle, the international crude oil price showed a significant decline, and European and American crude oil futures fell below $100 / barrel
.
Although the international oil price rebounded in the later period, the US crude oil once rose to near $105 / barrel, but the rebound is still relatively limited, and the domestic reference crude oil change rate is always in the negative range and continues to fall
deeply.

"The recent overall oscillation and decline in international oil prices is mainly affected by changes in macro logic, the tightening of financial conditions brought about by high global inflation levels and interest rate hikes in various countries, the expectation of a global recession has been increasing, and the risk aversion in the market has continued to rise
.
" As a commodity leader, crude oil has strong macro and financial attributes and is greatly
affected by the expectation of macro recession.
In addition, Biden's recent trip to the Middle East is expected to play a role
in increasing OPEC production.
If OPEC oil producers increase production, to a certain extent, it will alleviate the pressure of supply tension and form a certain pressure
on short-term oil prices.
Sui Xiaoying, chief petrochemical researcher in the middle of Fangzheng, said
.

On July 12, the center of gravity of oil prices in the internal and external disks continued to move
down in the oscillation.
As of the afternoon close, the main contract of Shanghai crude oil futures fell 1.
25% to 677.
4 yuan / barrel
.

In the view of Zheng Mengqi, a researcher at Haizheng Futures, the current supply side of the crude oil market is expected to increase, but the uncertainty is relatively large, and it is necessary to wait for the United States and Saudi Arabia to announce the results
.
Specifically, U.
S.
crude oil production is limited by capital expenditure, OPEC except Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates other members have insufficient spare capacity, and the return of Iranian crude oil needs to continue to pay attention to the US-Iran negotiations
.
In addition, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not yet ended, and the United States, the European Union and Japan plan to impose price caps on Russian oil to increase crude oil supply and ease the pressure on
high oil prices.

"From the perspective of inventory, despite the accumulation of crude oil, the inventory is still at a low level in the same period of previous years, and the inventory of refined oil products is much lower than the level of the same period in history, so there is support
below oil prices.
" On the demand side, although there is a recession expectation, the outer plate gasoline, diesel, fuel cracking prices fell at a high level, but the current cracking price spread is still at a relatively high level, refinery operations also remain high, and the peak consumption season and hurricane season are still not over
.
Superimposed jet coal demand still has room for recovery, and crude oil demand has a certain degree of resilience
.
Zheng Mengqi believes that in general, considering the recent macro pressure, the uncertainty of crude oil supply is strong, and the short-term oil price trend may continue to be weak
.

Sui Xiaoying believes that in the short and medium term, although the macro side has a favorable and bearish news, the monthly difference is still firm, reflecting that the current crude oil supply and demand structure is still good, so it is expected that the overall performance of crude oil in the process of oscillation weakening is still relatively resistant
.
In the long run, the macro recession is expected to gradually strengthen, crude oil and other risk assets will continue to be hit, the current preliminary belief that the general trend of oil prices has peaked, the second half of this year the overall operation of crude oil will gradually move
down.

Huang Liunan, a senior researcher at Guotai Junan Futures, said that although the current European energy supply situation is still grim, the core of short-term trading in the crude oil market is recession expectations, and the downward trend of crude oil oscillations is basically established
.
Judging from the core inflation data of some European countries, there has been a clear inflection point, which has triggered market concerns about the recession prospects, and North American inflation expectations have fallen
back rapidly.
Considering that the Fed has not relaxed for the time being to slow down interest rate hikes, the recent continued strengthening of the US dollar, the continued depreciation of the euro, and the bearish expectations of tightening and the recession are stronger
than in June.
At present, the market is in a rapid decline in inflation expectations, but the real level of inflation is still in a delicate state of high, and it is wary of the trend decline
under deflationary risks.
It is expected that WTI crude oil may fall below 90 US dollars / barrel in the future, and Shanghai crude oil may fall below 600 yuan / barrel
.