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On Monday, the main 2012 contract of Shanghai copper opened high and fluctuated, with the highest 52240 yuan / ton in the day, the lowest 51780 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 51840 yuan / ton, down 0.
80% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME copper opened high, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 6967 US dollars / ton, up 0.
29%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) Biden announced that he had won the presidential election and said that he would establish a plan to deal with the new crown, which will be implemented
from the first day in office.
(2) U.
S.
non-farm payrolls rose by 638,000 in October, better than market expectations for an increase of 600,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.
9% in October, far exceeding expectations of 7.
7% and the previous value of 7.
9%.
(3) As of November 6, China's copper mine port inventory was 577,000 tons, a weekly increase of 48,000 tons; China's copper ore processing fee TC was 47 US dollars / dry ton, a weekly decrease of 0.
7 US dollars / dry ton
.
(4) On November 6, the inventory of China's free trade zone was 423,000 tons, an increase of 07,000 tons from Monday and an increase of 18,000 tons from last Friday
Spot analysis: On November 9, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 52200-52300 yuan / ton, with an average price of 52250 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 615 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the quotations of cargo holders were firm, traders were cautious and wait-and-see, downstream consumption continued to be weak, and the transaction was average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 53,767 tons on Monday, a daily decrease of 601 tons, a drop of 9 consecutive days; On November 6, LME copper stocks were 172,450 tons, down 1,600 tons
per day.
As of the week ended November 6, the previous Shanghai copper inventory was reported 131321 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,336 tons
.
Main positions: Shanghai copper main 2012 contract top 20 long positions 76952 lots, daily minus 556 lots, short positions 67645 lots, daily increase of 1628 lots, net long positions 9307 lots, daily decrease of 2184 lots, more reduction short increase, net more decrease
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2012 high opening volatility on November 9
.
Biden announced that he won the presidential election and said that he would build a plan to deal with the new crown, the market expected a larger stimulus plan, and the dollar index came under pressure to the downside; At the same time, the supply of upstream copper mines remained tight, copper ore processing fees TC were further reduced, and smelter production costs continued to be high; And the recent market purchasing sentiment has heated up, inventories have continued to degrade, and the basis premium has risen, which has supported copper prices
.
However, the global pandemic has rebounded again, and the cloudy economic outlook will weigh on demand; Moreover, the domestic smelter has a high willingness to impulse at the end of the year, and the stock of copper ore raw materials is active, and it is expected that refined copper production will continue to rise, limiting the upward momentum
of copper prices.
Technically, Shanghai copper 2012 contract bulls cautiously closed long upper shadow, daily MACD indicator golden cross, expected short-term shock adjustment
.
