Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand It is expected that the price of refined petroleum coke in the near future may be mainly consolidated

First, the price data

According to the bulk list data, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners fell slightly last week, and the average price of the Shandong market on August 21 was 4039.
00 yuan / ton, down 1.
52%
from the price of 4062.
50 yuan / ton on August 15.

On August 21, the petcoke commodity index was 314.
15, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.
13% from the highest point of the cycle of 408.
70 points (2022-05-11), and up 369.
65%
from the lowest point of 66.
89 points on March 28, 2016.
(Note: The period refers to 2012-09-30 to date)

Second, the analysis of influencing factors

Upstream: international crude oil price shock, on the one hand, the pessimistic tone of the recent recession dominates the market, economic data is generally weak, once again triggering market concerns about the global recession expectations, in addition, the market is waiting for the results of negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement, supply tension expectations have eased, making international oil prices under pressure
.
Previously, the market focused on the outcome of the OPEC+ ministerial meeting, and finally the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (JMMC) decided to increase production by 100,000 bpd
in September.
The increase was significantly smaller than the previous 648,000 barrels, the smallest increase in the institution's
history.
Although the increase in production is small, equivalent to about 0.
1% of global oil demand, OPEC+ actually reserves more room
for production increase.
Finally, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates, Iran is expected to add about 1.
3 million bpd of additional capacity within 6 months after the resumption of the JCPOA, which is also some reversal of the market's perception of tighter supply expectations, and the decline in
international oil prices.

Downstream: Calcination coke prices remained stable this week; Silicon metal market prices rose sharply; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose, as of August 21, the price was 18433.
33 yuan / ton; Downstream carbon enterprises mostly hold a wait-and-see mood and mainly
purchase on demand.

Petroleum coke analysts believe that this week's international crude oil shock, petcoke cost support is limited; Downstream carbon companies mostly hold a wait-and-see mood, mainly purchasing on demand, and refinery petcoke shipments have slowed down
.
It is expected that the price of refined petroleum coke in the near future will be mainly consolidated
.