"Drink poison to quench thirst"?

Affected by the continuous correction of crude oil prices on the cost side, the chemical sector still showed a weaker trend on May 14, with polyester products leading the decline in the chemical sector.
The price of PTA futures in the early trading on the 14th once hit the limit of falling, and then rebounded slightly; staple fiber and ethylene glycol both fell more than 5% intraday.

Supply and demand weakened, PTA prices fell sharply

It is worth mentioning that the PTA futures contracts in the early trading on the 14th almost collectively fell their limit.

"In March-April, due to the low processing difference, the acetic acid of the auxiliary material soared, the PTA industry fell into a loss, and domestic enterprises took turns overhauling.

According to her, from April to May, major domestic manufacturers reduced the supply of contracted goods, and the tight PTA spot market led to relatively firm prices.

In Pang Chunyan's view, the impact of oil prices on the PTA market from cost to mentality is one of the reasons for the sharp drop in PTA prices this week.

　　According to a reporter from the Futures Daily, among the PTA devices that were shut down in the early stage, Sichuan Energy Investment 1 million tons/year, Zhongtai Chemical 1.

　　"On the one hand, recent PTA bearish sentiment is too high, downstream polyester production and sales are unfavorable.

　　In this regard, Dadi Futures analyst Jiang Shuopeng believes that the recent fundamentals of PTA have gradually shifted from the previous tight to the loose, and social inventories have gradually shifted from the substantial destocking in April to the accumulation, and the liquidity of the spot market has increased.

　　"Downstream polyester is affected by high inventory and weak profits, and the equipment maintenance plan has increased significantly, and the load is expected to fall from a high level.

　　Insufficient demand support, frequent price cuts and promotions

　　The reporter learned that because the price of raw materials fluctuates too sharply, it has a great negative impact on polyester.
Polyester products dominated by polyester filaments are also passively following the price adjustment of raw materials, which affects the purchasing sentiment of downstream businesses.
Downstream procurement is cautious, production and sales have been sluggish for days, and filament companies passively cut prices for promotion.

　　In this regard, analysts said that in the first half of the first half of the "golden three silver four" traditional demand peak season did not see a substantial increase in demand.
The high cost of raw materials combined with overseas epidemic fermentation has made terminal textile and apparel demand sluggish.
Since May, some terminal weaving companies have reported that orders have improved compared with the previous period.
However, small-batch orders are not enough to absorb inventory, and demand is difficult to achieve substantial improvement.
"Since the beginning of this year, the polyester industry's operating load has increased rapidly, with an average monthly operating rate of more than 90%, and terminal weaving operations are mostly maintained at around 70%.
The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent.
Therefore, the frequency of promotion of polyester varieties in the first half of the year is relatively fast.
"

　　Take polyester filament as an example.
In April, three rounds of concentrated preferential sales promotion, downstream bargain-hunting purchases, polyester filament companies showed de-stocking effects in a short period of time, but the pulse-type production and sales overdraft demand in advance, and the market became more deserted after the event.
As the frequency of sales promotion is accelerating, the timing of sales promotion has often become a downstream procurement node.
Due to the pessimistic market outlook, users also purchase more on-demand to ease the pressure on raw material inventory.

　　"Phased promotional activities have not substantially improved the high inventory pressure of enterprises, and downstream users have mostly adapted to the mode of promotional procurement.
Therefore, if there is no promotion of promotional activities in the later period, the resistance of polyester sales will further increase, and the focus of market transactions It will also continue to drop in the promotional activities.
When the cash flow of the company reaches a state near the break-even line, the company is bound to consider limiting production and insuring the price.
For the polyester industry, the promotion model will undoubtedly quench thirst by drinking poison.
" Analyst said.

　　Similarly, in Zhu Lihang’s opinion, frequent price reductions and promotions are not a good thing for the industry chain, affecting the profits of polyester manufacturers.
Weakened.
Zhu Lihang said.

　　At present, in the downstream polyester market, products such as bottle flakes, staple fibers and chips are already at a break-even or loss-making state, and the huge profits of filament products are also being squeezed.
CCF data shows that as of last Friday, DTY and FDY inventories have been higher than the level of the same period in the past five years, and POY inventories are at a high level in the same period of the past five years.

　　"At present, the downstream polyester end is generally weakened, profits are compressed and inventory is high, resulting in increased equipment overhauls, and it is expected that the later load will drop significantly.
The polyester terminal weaving link has entered the off-season, but the current short-term terminal orders have increased due to the impact of 618.
There is still support, but later orders are still small, especially overseas orders have not yet recovered, and the overall downstream terminal demand support is still weak.
" Jiang Shuopeng believes that when terminal demand is weak and production and sales continue to weaken, the polyester link will be reduced through price promotion.
The purpose of the library is to promote production and sales in the short term, but it cannot improve the contradiction between supply and demand.

　　Surplus is still the main theme

　　It can be seen that the supply and demand of various varieties in the polyester industry chain are different, but as a whole, PTA and ethylene glycol are in a period of concentrated launch of new production capacity, and medium and long-term surplus is still the main tone.

　　“PTAMEG，，，。”，，PTAMEG，。“，，，。”

　　，5PTA500/，，，，。400/，PTA，。

　　“PTA：，PTA。”，PTA，，，PTA，。、。

　　“PTA，660/，330/56，。，，，89%，PTA。”，，，PTA，。。

　　，PTA。“PTA，，，PTA，。”，，PTA。

　　：