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Last week, aluminum prices continued to fall, with Shanghai aluminum falling by 2.
86% and Lun aluminum falling by 2.
90%; Although the domestic PMI data is good during the week, the feedback of aluminum downstream market demand is not good, some companies have nothing to do, the structural problems of supply and demand side once again triggered the downward trend of aluminum prices, in addition, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates in the month, the macro bearish is still far more than the positive factors, it is expected that the aluminum price may continue to decline in the near future
.
Last week, Lun aluminum ran in a V-shaped trend, and the overall oscillation between $2355-2495 was dominant
.
At the beginning of the week, due to the acceleration of inflation in Europe and the United States, investors were worried that the monetary tightening policy of the Federal Reserve and other central banks would lead to a recession in the economy, metal demand or restrictions, Lun aluminum volatility lower, once fell to a low level around May 20, 2021 during the week, but affected by the low inventory of LME aluminum, and the market hopes that China will take economic stimulus, the second half of the week Lun aluminum low rebound, standing at $2400 after continuing to rise, but macro news is still bearish, under inflationary pressure, The probability of a 75 basis point rate hike by the Fed at the end of July is more than 90%, and aluminum is still running low or fluctuating
between $2320 and $2440.
In terms of the market, the market continues to weaken, downstream enterprises panic is prominent, the wait-and-see atmosphere is heavier, as the price stops falling and warms up, downstream companies have entered the market to receive goods, but most of them are just demand-based, and the overall market transaction is not as good as last week
.
East China: A number of Fed officials said that the current inflation is still deteriorating, macro bearish dominates, last week aluminum prices overall center of gravity downward is still obvious, especially on Wednesday, there was a sharp decline, spot aluminum fell close to 800 yuan / ton, and then stabilized a slight rebound, as of Friday, East China spot aluminum prices between 18440-18480 yuan / ton, down 590 yuan / ton, down 3.
1%.
South China: As of Friday, Foshan Nanhai aluminum ingot ticket price between 18600-18700 yuan / ton, down 620 yuan / ton, the current East China South China aluminum ingot price difference narrowed to 190 yuan / ton, market activity is mostly reflected in Thursday, Friday, but due to the impact of downstream enterprises' off-season demand, orders declined, and uncertainty about the future market, enterprises are mainly on-demand procurement, stockpiling merchants are not many
.
Overall, the current trend, macro sentiment fluctuations still have a greater impact on the price, aluminum prices get a respite after the release of pessimism in the early stage, but the price rebound space or limited, and the later macro sentiment still fluctuates, the pressure on the supply side is also increasing, and the price rebound is difficult to sustain.
