EIA lowered its oil price forecast, expecting U.S. crude oil production next year to reach a new high, and the decline in oil prices widened to its lowest since January

The U.
S
.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a short-term energy outlook.
Compared with the November report, EIA lowered its retail price forecast for crude oil and gasoline this year and next, raised its oil production forecast for the United States and the world this year and next, and lowered its global oil demand forecast
for next year.
International oil prices fell 4% intraday, and crude oil fell below the $80 mark
.

The U.
S
.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a short-term energy outlook.
Compared with the November report, EIA lowered its retail price forecast for crude oil and gasoline this year and next, raised its oil production forecast for the United States and the world this year and next, and lowered its global oil demand forecast for next year, and EIA's forecast for the US economy was raised
from before.

The key forecast figures are as follows:

EIA expects Brent crude oil prices of $101.
48/b in 2022, compared to $102.
13 previously, and $92.
36/b in 2023, compared to $
95.
33 previously.
EIA expects gasoline retail prices of $3.
99/gallon in 2022, compared to $4.
02 previously, and $3.
51/gallon in 2023, compared to $
3.
61 previously.
EIA expects U.
S.
oil production of 11.
87 million b/d in 2022, compared to its previous forecast of 11.
83 million b/d; U.
S.
oil production is expected to be 12.
34 million b/d in 2023, compared with 12.
31 million b/d
previously estimated.
EIA expects global oil production of 99.
98 million b/d in 2022, compared to its previous forecast of 99.
93 million b/d; Global oil production is expected to be 101.
06 million b/d in 2023, compared to the previous forecast of 100.
67 million b/d
.
EIA expects global oil demand of 99.
82 million b/d in 2022, unchanged from previous expectations; Global oil demand is expected to be 100.
82 million b/d in 2023, compared to the previous forecast of 100.
98 million b/d
.
In this report, EIA is more optimistic
about the US economy.
GDP is expected to grow by 1.
8% in 2022, compared with 1.
7% previously; Growth is expected to be 0.
1% in 2023, after a contraction of 0.
1%.

The U.
S.
government raised its forecast for next year's oil production, easing fears of
a slowdown in shale production.
EIA's forecast for U.
S.
crude production of 12.
34 million b/d next year means it is expected to surpass the all-time high of 12.
315 million b/d set in 2019 and set a new production record
.

The U.
S.
upward revision of crude oil production forecasts comes with an increase
in the number of oil rigs.
According to Baker Hughes, the number of U.
S.
oil rigs has increased by about 30 percent
so far this year.
Shale producers are expanding drilling at a cautious pace, and they are also paying close attention to capital discipline and shareholder returns at a time of high oil prices, which has frustrated US President Joe Biden, who wants to suppress oil prices to reduce inflation, and he has repeatedly called on shale producers to extract more oil
.

On Tuesday, U.
S.
stocks and oil prices tumbled
again as markets worried about higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
Oil prices fell to their lowest
level since January this year.
International oil prices extended intraday losses to 4%, WTI crude oil futures at $73.
85 / barrel, Brent crude oil futures fell below the $80 mark, reaching 79.
29 US dollars / barrel
.

Some market participants pointed out the reason for the recent drop in oil prices: "We are almost at the end of the year, and those who have made money this year do not want to lose money"
.

At present, traders are weighing the impact of the EU's price ceiling on Russian oil on the market
.
The European Union has set a price cap on Russian oil at $
60 per barrel.
Russia is considering setting a price floor for its oil exports to international markets in response
to the G7's latest price cap.

OPEC+ decided at its December meeting to keep output unchanged but said it was "ready to act.
"
If the current market downturn continues, OPEC+ is likely to intervene
.