February 24 Shanghai aluminum afternoon commentary

Domestically, electrolytic aluminum enters the rapid resumption stage, Yunnan power is relieved, Yunnan aluminum, Shenhuo, etc.
can recover to the pre-production level, the next three months can resume production up to one million tons, Guangxi, Qinghai, Shanxi, Guizhou, Gansu and other provinces and regions also plan to start the resumption of production; The epidemic situation in Guangxi was lifted from lockdown, goods were gradually shipped, arrivals in Guangdong increased, and premium weakened
.

The escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has not affected real enterprises for the time being, and the domestic policies for stable growth and stable housing market have been continuously introduced, and the stabilization of real estate has promoted market sentiment; In the medium term, US inflation continues to rise, the Fed raises interest rates slowly, the level of domestic and foreign aluminum inventories is low, production capacity is still recovering, production has not been released for the time being, the peak season is coming, prices are supported, and over-fall can be appropriately bargained and long; Short-term spot pressure is large, spot discount is large, demand recovery is slow, production capacity recovery is expected to be large, price upward resistance is greater, it is expected that the price will remain high and volatile, it is recommended to wait and see
.