First! The media said Germany was prepared to support the EU's progressive ban on the import of Russian oil

According to Bloomberg News, Germany is ready to support EU countries to phase in a phased and gradual ban on Russian oil
imports.
The phased approach supported by Germany is not some of the options that have been discussed before (e.
g.
, a payment mechanism that sets a price cap or withholds part of Russia's revenue).

Support for a "gradual ban" on Russian oil is the first for
Germany.

The crude oil ban will also include a transition period
.
The European Union also introduced a ban on Russian coal earlier this month, adopting a similar transition period approach
.
On April 7, local time, representatives of the 27 member states of the European Union decided to impose a new round of sanctions on Russia, including an embargo
on Russian coal.
This is the first time since Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine that the European Union has imposed sanctions
on Russian energy.
The European Commission initially proposed to give member states 90 days to gradually reduce until they stopped Russian coal imports, but this was extended to 120 days
at the request of countries such as Germany.

About two weeks ago, the media said that crude oil could become the next target of
the European Union's sanctions against Russian energy.
European officials are drafting an embargo on Russian petroleum products, a punitive measure deemed highly controversial
.

The European Union is currently working on a sixth round of sanctions against Russia and is expected to hold consultations
with its member states in the coming days.
The final plan for the EU's latest ban on crude oil has yet to be finalized
.

EU sanctions need to be unanimously agreed
.
Agreeing on a "transition duration of the oil ban" would be particularly complex, with some member states pushing for early action
.

Poland is one of
the countries that supports tougher sanctions against Russia.
The country plans to propose a mechanism similar to a carbon market at the next EU summit to guarantee that the EU will phase out Russian fossil fuels
.
This proposed mechanism may be applicable to oil and gas
.
Specifically, the mechanism will set a date
for the cessation of the use of Russian energy.
Each member state will be given a quota to import fossil fuels, and those that want to use more will have to buy licenses
from countries that use less.

According to Eurostat, 26% of the EU's crude oil imports depend on Russia, which meets 37% of the EU's energy needs
in 2020.

Subsequently, Russian Finance Minister Andong Siluanov said in St.
Petersburg that if Western countries refuse to import Russian energy, Russia will look for other energy sales channels, but after taking into account factors such as exchange rates, production and global energy prices, Russia's overall oil production is expected to fall by 17%.

At present, the energy crisis facing Europe is escalating
.
Since the new rules for Russian gas payments came into effect on April 1, Poland and Bulgaria became the first targets
to be "cut off" by Russia on Tuesday as the ruble payment date is about to expire.

Germany's reluctance to "play a hard hand" on Russian energy stems from its energy dependence
.
Germany's Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs has sharply lowered its economic growth forecast for this year to 2.
2 percent, up from a previous forecast of 3.
6 percent
.
The German economy ministry also forecasts inflation at 6.
1 percent
this year.
German Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Habbeck pointed out that the German economy faces obvious risks
due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
However, the downturn does not take into account the possible impact
of an energy embargo on Russia.
If the EU finally decides to impose an energy embargo on Russia, it will have a huge impact
on economic production.
Germany's dependence on Russian gas imports has fallen from 55% to 35%, but Germany is still unable to completely get rid of Russian gas
in the short term.
At the same time, if Russian gas is cut off, Germany's economic growth will be reduced by 0.
5 to 5.
6 percentage points
.
There are currently no indications that Russia will stop delivering gas to Germany, but Germany must take this possibility seriously and needs to do more to get through the next winter
without Russian gas.

After the news that Germany is ready to support EU countries to gradually ban the import of Russian oil, the intraday decline narrowed
.
U.
S.
oil is currently trading above
$101.

Previously, JPMorgan Chase warned in the report that if Europe adopts a "comprehensive and rapid ban" on Russian crude oil, the loss of crude oil and refined products on the supply side may exceed 4 million barrels per day
.
At that time, Brent crude has the potential to soar 65% to $185/bbl
.
If the EU adopts a similar approach to the embargo on Russian coal, phasing out Russia's crude oil supply within about four months, the price of crude oil in the crude oil market is expected to be not significantly disrupted
.