Focusing on the fourth round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, committed to "reaching an agreement", a new round of decline in oil prices began

During the Asian session on Monday (March 14), international oil prices opened low and went low, and U.
S.
crude oil fell more than 2%, currently trading at $106.
86 / barrel; Oil prices also recorded their biggest weekly drop since November last week as substantial progress was made in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and traders assessed a possible improvement
in supply prospects disrupted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The focus of the day is on the fourth round of negotiations
between Russia and Ukraine.

Negative factors affecting oil prices

[The fourth round of Russia-Ukraine talks will strive to reach an agreement]

Russian presidential press secretary Peskov said on the evening of March 13 local time that the fourth round of talks between Russia and Ukraine will be held
by video on March 14.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the task of the Ukrainian delegation in the fourth round of negotiations is to reach an agreement on his own meeting with Russian President Putin and at the same time obtain "effective guarantees"
from the Russian side.

The adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine said that the meeting between President Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin will be held in the foreseeable future, and the Ukrainian side is making every effort to realize
it as soon as possible.

Slutsky, a member of the Russian delegation to the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, said that "substantial progress"
had been made in the negotiations with Ukraine.
He hoped that this would translate into a common position between the two delegations and into a "document to be signed"
.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said: "The stalled Iran negotiations are one of the factors supporting the market, and market participants will now be closely watching Russian export data to understand how much (supply) is affected
.
" ”

Staunovo said the focus this week will turn to oil market reports
from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Both organizations say the market should be oversupplied this year
.

U.
S.
rig data from energy services firm Baker Hughes showed 13 new oil and gas rigs were added, bringing the total to 663, the ninth week increase
in 10 weeks.

[S&P 500 sends biggest weekly drop since January]

The S&P 500 posted its biggest weekly drop last week since Jan.
21, amid signs that talks between Russia and Ukraine are not progressing, deepening investor concerns
that geopolitical tensions could last longer.

The S&P 500 closed down 1.
3%
on Friday.
The 11 major industry sectors fell across the board, led by the communication
services and information technology sectors.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.
2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.
7%.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said he had not seen talks between the two countries make the progress
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said.
The shelling of the Russian military continues, while US President Joe Biden calls for the end of normal trade relations with Russia and announces a ban on the import of Russian vodka, caviar and diamonds
.

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, said in the report, "We continue to see Russia step up its attacks on Ukraine, and Western sanctions have been increasing, which may trigger some caution
.
" ”

Data released on Friday showed U.
S.
consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2011 in early March, while inflation expectations for the year ahead soared
following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

[550 children have died of new coronary pneumonia in the United States]

The latest data shows that up to 1/3 of children diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia in the United States died during
the surge in Omicron cases.
The New York Post said on the 12th that data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed that since the beginning of this year, 550 children in the United States have died of new crown pneumonia, and the previous 22 months of deaths were 1,017.

Jason, a pediatric critical care specialist at Comer Children's Hospital at the University of Chicago Medical Center, said: "During the spread of Omicron, there was a massive surge in
hospitalized children.
Omicron may affect children differently than
previous variants.
It tends to affect children's upper respiratory tract because the upper airway is narrower and children are more susceptible to irritation
.
"To say that COVID deaths only occur in unhealthy children or children with risk factors is not accurate
from the data.
"

There are many factors affecting oil prices

[Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issues a warning statement against Israel]

On the 13th local time, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement announcing that it launched an attack
on the "Israeli strategic center" in the early morning of the 13th.
The statement said that in view of the recent crimes committed by Israel, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded and used missiles to attack the "Israeli strategic center"
on the evening of the 13th.

Iran once again warned Israel that any repeat of evil acts would face a harsh, decisive and destructive response
from Iran.
In addition, the Revolutionary Guards said that Iran's homeland security and peace are the "red lines" of the Iranian armed forces and will never allow threats or attacks
from anyone.

[Biden calls for an end to MFN treatment for Russian trade]

U.
S.
President Joe Biden on Friday called for an end to normal trade relations with Russia, cleared the way for higher import tariffs and announced a ban on imports of Russian-made vodka and caviar
.
Speaking at the White House, Biden said the withdrawal of that trade status "will make it harder for Russia to do business with the United States," adding that it would "deal another heavy blow
to the Russian economy.
" ”

The president does not have the power to unilaterally change Russia's trade status, the decision is up to Congress
.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the House would consider repealing legislation on Russia's trade status this week, a move supported by bipartisan lawmakers
.
If Congress passes legislation, Russia would be the only country
after Cuba and North Korea without that trade status.
Biden said the United States is working with
the European Union and the G7.

Biden also announced on Friday that the United States would ban imports of Russian alcohol and seafood, a move aimed at targeting goods
closely associated with Russia, such as caviar and vodka.

Biden said the United States would also ban imports of diamonds and other luxury goods
.
Normal trade relations, also known as most-favored-nation treatment in other countries, would allow the United States to impose much higher tariffs
on Russian products than on products from other WTO members.
The core principle of the WTO is non-discrimination among its members, with equal treatment of all members
.

U.
S.
allies have taken similar action
.
The European Union said last week it was seeking to withdraw Russia's most-favored-nation status, which Canada had done
.

[G7 will ban Russia from borrowing from multilateral financial institutions]

The White House issued a fact sheet outlining additional sanctions against Russia with the European Union and the G7
.
including denying Russia the privilege of lending at multilateral financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank; Other elites, including Yuri Kovalchuk, have been sanctioned across the board, and new U.
S.
Treasury Department guidelines seek to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions, including through virtual currencies
.

Oil prices fluctuated
sharply this week, driven by a series of news, such as the ban on Russian oil imports by the United States and the gradual ban on the United Kingdom.
Most companies in the industry are already avoiding Russian oil, and the latest sign of being abandoned by the industry is that there were no buyers
for a tender for Russian Far Eastern crude.
For the oil market, which desperately needs more supplies, the deadlock in nuclear negotiations has also prevented the return of Iranian crude oil sooner rather than later
.

Tariq Zahir, managing director of global macro programs at Tyche Capital Advisors LLC, said volatility wasn't going away anytime soon, and you could see oil prices rise by $105 "in the blink of an eye" due to tight markets and geopolitical risks

Open interest in major crude oil futures has recently plummeted to a near six-year low as traders averse to risk
.
Volatility soared, and exchanges raised margin ratios, effectively driving up buying and selling costs
.

Overall, significant progress in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has cooled crude oil supply concerns, and Ukraine is committed to "reaching an agreement" in the fourth round of negotiations; Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions may cool, short-term oil prices may be short; However, we need to be wary of Western sanctions against Russia and the spread of the global epidemic affecting demand or reduction
.

At 08:01 Beijing time, U.
S.
crude oil is now trading at $107.
17 a barrel
.