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Last week, the price of PVC market fell sharply, and most grades fell by more than 500 yuan / ton
per week.
The raw calcium carbide market is weak and volatile, which is negative for PVC costs; The market price of ethylene is higher, and the cost of ethylene process is stronger
.
Last week, under the environment of policy supervision, thermal coal futures fell sharply, PVC futures led the market, and the futures price fell by more than 1,000 yuan, which greatly affected the atmosphere
of the spot market.
Superimposed, the fundamental bearish factors dominate, social inventories continue to accumulate, PVC manufacturers have lowered factory prices, traders follow the market
.
Looking at the market downstream, there are not many
small orders to purchase.
On the supply side, PVC production has increased
slightly recently.
According to Longzhong information data, as of February 17, the overall operating rate of PVC was 80.
95%, an increase of 3.
05%
from last week.
Among them, the operating rate of calcium carbide method was 82.
70%, an increase of 1.
20% over the previous week; The ethylene process operating rate was 75.
29%, up 9.
80%
from the previous week.
In terms of demand, the downstream operating rate of PVC has increased slightly recently, but the overall pace of resumption is slow, which has dragged
down prices.
The start of profile enterprises according to Longzhong statistics is currently more than 2-5%, and there are not many more than 50%, and on the whole, the start of construction in the southern region is better than that in the north
.
It is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to increase in the later period, and demand is expected to improve
.
In terms of costs, calcium carbide prices have fallen recently, and ethylene prices have risen
.
As of February 18, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was 4240 yuan / ton, a change of -0.
59% from February 11; The price of calcium carbide in East China was 4725 yuan / ton, a change of -1.
05% from February 11; The price of calcium carbide in South China was 4850 yuan / ton, a change of -0.
51%
from February 11.
As of February 17, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene prices were $1,211/ton, a change of 1.
68%
from February 10.
The gross profit of the latest calcium carbide process is 857 yuan/ton; Ethylene gross profit - 100 yuan / ton
.
At present, the calcium carbide process has a good profit, the ethylene process has a small loss, and the cost end-to-price support is weak
.
In terms of inventory, the social inventory rose month-on-month last week, and the latest social inventory of Longzhong statistics was about 326,600 tons, an increase of 4.
81% month-on-month and an increase of 87.
50%
year-on-year.
On the whole, the short-term PVC fundamentals are neutral
.
From the cost side, the current price of PVC raw material calcium carbide has fallen, and ethylene prices have risen
.
From the perspective of supply and demand structure, short-term operating rate and output increased, downstream demand improved month-on-month, and inventory accumulated
seasonally.
Expect short-term prices to be range-bound, focusing on pressure around 9500-9600 above and support
around 8400-8500 below.
