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Trade Service
On Monday, the Shanghai aluminum shock ran to close the black line, intraday trading is general, and the atmosphere of long and short wait-and-see is strong
.
Stimulated by the recent peripheral geopolitical crisis and the expectation of the Fed's continued interest rate hikes, the shock operation of Shanghai aluminum is dominant, and some non-ferrous differences have increased, and the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are still supported
by reducing factors such as cost and power energy.
In terms of the market, the Shanghai market on Monday electrolytic aluminum to Shanghai aluminum 2209 contract reported a discount of 50-10 yuan / ton; The electrolytic aluminum in the central China market reported a discount of 180-140 yuan / ton to the Shanghai aluminum 2209 contract; Guangdong market electrolytic aluminum to Shanghai aluminum 2209 contract reported a discount of 220-180 yuan / ton
.
On the supply side, the expected decline in alumina production is expected to increase, price fluctuations are limited, and electricity prices and smelting auxiliary product prices do not fluctuate much, electrolytic aluminum cost support is still effective, at present, even if the power supply is restored, the recovery of power cuts caused by tank shutdown and production capacity is still taking some time, it is expected that the output of electrolytic aluminum in September will be about 3.
4 million tons, while the net import of electrolytic aluminum is still low
.
In terms of consumption, the real estate sector has obviously dragged down the downstream consumption of aluminum, and the increase in demand in the traditional consumption season is relatively limited
.
Last week, domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks fell by 1,000 tons, and bonded zone stocks fell by 1,000 tons
.
Recently, the domestic aluminum fundamentals show a pattern of supply and demand, it is difficult to find obvious contradictions, it is expected that aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate in the market, pay attention to the changes in overseas aluminum plant production, and it is recommended to maintain range operations
first.
