Global renewable energy development will accelerate under high oil prices

Recently, international oil prices have continued to fluctuate
at a high level.
The high international oil price will boost the global oil and gas exploration and production industry, and will also promote the increase of domestic oil reserves and production
.
At the same time, rising international oil prices may lead to an acceleration of global renewable energy development and accelerate the pace of
global energy transition.

Since nearly 200 countries around the world adopted the Paris Agreement in 2015, addressing climate change has become the consensus of the international community, and the policy orientation of promoting green development globally and replacing traditional fossil energy with low-carbon and clean energy will not change
.
The rise in international crude oil prices will accelerate the substitution
of electric energy for oil in the transportation sector.
In recent years, the price of photovoltaic and wind power generation equipment has fallen rapidly, and the conditions for grid parity have been met, the cost of photovoltaic and wind power has become very competitive in the world, the entire industry has entered a period of high-speed penetration, and the rise in oil prices will accelerate the replacement
of traditional fossil energy such as oil by new energy.

The rise in crude oil prices will accelerate the pace
of promotion of new energy vehicles.
From the perspective of global trends, Deloitte's research shows that since 2014, the new energy transportation industry that replaces fossil fuels with electric energy and fuel cells has flourished, and the global number of electric vehicles will exceed 10 million in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 43%, and the growth rate of fuel cell vehicles in the same period will be 40%.

From the domestic point of view, the cost advantage of energy use has boosted the promotion of new energy vehicles
.
In recent years, China's new energy vehicle production and sales have grown rapidly, with the improvement of endurance and charging convenience, new energy vehicles will usher in a golden period
of rapid development.
Under the support of national policies and the impact of international oil prices, the promotion process of new energy vehicles in China will be greatly accelerated
.
The market predicts that pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream
of new car sales in China in 2035.

From the perspective of the trend of global energy transition, Deloitte's research points out that since 2013, global investment in renewable energy has averaged about $300 billion per year, with solar and wind energy being the largest investment hotspots; In 2020, offshore wind energy investment jumped to around $50 billion, becoming the fastest growing sector
.
It is estimated that by 2050, nearly 90% of the world's total electricity generation will come from renewable sources
.
Statistics from the International Renewable Energy Agency show that since 2012, the world's annual new installed capacity of clean energy has exceeded the total installed capacity of various types of fossil energy.
In 2020, the world's new installed capacity of clean energy will be more than
four times that of other sources.
Deloitte's research believes that the gap, volatility and randomness of renewable energy put forward higher requirements for the operation, scheduling and control of energy networks, and it is necessary to establish a comprehensive and coordinated energy system of source network loading and storage to ensure safe and reliable energy supply.
Fossil energy is transformed from primary energy to auxiliary regulatory energy, and the clean and efficient utilization of fossil energy as a backup guarantee for energy security will effectively reduce the risk
of energy system.
With the clear net zero target of the world's major economies, the global oil and gas market has undergone a huge transformation, but the special role of oil remains irreplaceable
.
With the gradual decline of direct consumption of oil and gas, the oil and gas industry will show two transformation trends: one is to transform into an international integrated energy company and build a low-carbon asset portfolio; The second is to achieve innovation and optimization based on traditional oil and
gas business + negative carbon technology.

From the perspective of the trend of China's energy transformation, the proposal of the "double carbon" goal marks the inevitable trend
of the green and low-carbon transformation of China's energy structure.
Judging from the information revealed by the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2021, China will steadily promote the withdrawal of traditional energy sources such as coal and oil based on its national conditions, but the determination and policy orientation to vigorously develop clean energy and renewable energy have not changed
。 China will develop wind power and photovoltaics in a centralized and distributed manner to optimize the power supply structure; Through the joint operation of wind and photovoltaic storage and light storage, new energy and netizen goodwill are improved; Accelerate the flexible transformation of coal-fired units, promote the transformation of the role of fossil energy from primary energy to regulated energy, strictly control new coal-fired production capacity, phase out some coal-fired units, and coal-fired power plants equipped with CCUS (carbon capture, utilization and storage) technology as peak regulation supplements for
renewable energy。 With the market-oriented reform of the energy industry, the price mechanism has become an important force
in promoting energy transformation.
At present, the continuous rise of international oil prices, the high domestic coal price and the rapid decline in the cost of new energy power generation have become important driving forces for
the green and low-carbon transformation of energy.