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Platts recently pointed out that the ethylene production capacity in the United States and Asia has increased significantly, the new export terminals in the United States and the downstream ethylene market will continue to remain weak, and the global ethylene market prospects in 2020 are bleak
.
Since 2017, the United States has added about 8.
18 million tons of ethylene capacity per year
.
The United States currently has an ethylene export terminal in operation
.
EPP's new 1-million-ton/year ethylene export terminal in the Houston Seaway will gradually increase ethylene exports in 2020, and the construction of the second phase of the project is planned to start in the fourth quarter of 2020
.
Market participants said European producers will reduce ethylene production and prices as more imported ethylene floods into the region due to the massive commissioning of new ethylene capacity in the United States and the commissioning of new export terminals
.
European ethylene producers will struggle to maintain market share amid an influx of ethylene in the US
.
In 2020, the number of shutdowns of steam crackers in Europe will be less than in 2019.
However, in view of the macroeconomic environment, the ethylene supply in the European market is likely to be balanced in 2020, and even there will be excess
.
According to data from S&P Global Platts, the ethylene/naphtha spread narrowed to an average of $152.
63/ton in Asian markets on October 25, 2019, the lowest level since May 2012 and well below A breakeven spread of $300 to $350 per ton
.
In the European market, ethylene producers are reducing the operating rate of crackers in response to weaker demand in the downstream derivatives market and increased U.
S.
ethylene imports, sources said
.
According to analysis by S&P Global Platts, in 2020, the average spot price of ethylene in Europe is expected to drop to US$1,008/ton (CIF, Northwest Europe), which is lower than the average price of US$1,068/ton in 2019
.
U.
S.
ethylene prices are expected to remain competitive compared with other regions, supported by cheap ethane feedstocks, but unplanned shutdowns of crackers could cause ethylene prices to fluctuate, market sources said
.
In June this year, the US ethylene spot price hit a record low of 11.
75 cents/lb (FD, Monte Bellevue)
.
By the end of November, however, U.
S.
ethylene prices had recovered to around 23 cents per pound
.
