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On January 3, the Ministry of Commerce issued the first batch of refined oil export quotas, the amount of nearly 19 million tons, an increase of 46% over 2022, the overall direction of the relaxation of refined oil export quotas is in line with our previous judgment, that is, this year the domestic oil market once again resumed the "big in, big out" mode, the current refinery diesel production profit is still at a historical high, refinery willingness to produce and export diesel is still high
.
Compared with last year, with the recovery of domestic demand and the growth of refinery processing volume, domestic crude oil imports and refined oil exports are expected to increase
year-on-year.
The first batch of enterprises receiving export quotas for refined oil products included PetroChina (5.
96 million tons), Sinopec (7.
41 million tons), CNOOC (1.
76 million tons), Sinochem (1.
93 million tons), Zhejiang Petrochemical (1.
67 million tons), China Aviation Oil (60,000 tons) and China South Weapons (200,000 tons).
Some industry insiders told Shun Tak Maritime that the issuance of China's first batch of refined oil quotas has boosted the confidence of shipowners in the Northeast Asian market to some extent, because China's refined oil exports have absorbed some of the capacity
accumulated in the market since late December.
Analysts at investment banks such as Fearnley Securities said the increase in export quotas bodes well for oil tankers in China and across Asia
.
Fearnley Securities said, "The increase in quotas has a short-term positive impact on demand for refined oil tankers in the region, as these refined products are likely to remain in the intra-Asian market
.
”
In addition, some refined products may also flow to the West with newly delivered VLCCs, the
agency said.
(Note: The newly delivered VLCC cabin is very clean and can be loaded with relatively clean oil, there have been similar cases before, such as: →; ）
The investment bank also believes that China's higher quota may also support crude oil import demand
to some extent.
Because China is not a major producer of crude oil, more production of refined oil requires importing more crude oil
.
