How long can crude oil prices hold out, what is the demand outlook for crude oil market in 2022?

How long can crude oil prices last

On Christmas Eve, crude oil prices continued to rise
.
Yesterday, gas prices in Europe fell sharply, again falling by more than 20%.

The market's focus is likely to shift
again with the sharp decline in natural gas prices.
How long will crude oil prices last?

On Thursday (December 23), crude oil prices closed above $73 a barrel for the first time in four weeks, and signs that the omicron variant may be less virulent than previous strains eased concerns about a demand shock; WTI crude futures for New York markets closed up 1.
4 percent on Thursday amid a drop
in market liquidity as the holiday approached.

As Christmas approaches, trading volumes begin to dwindle, with the total number of open interest in crude oil, gasoline and diesel futures at its lowest level in nearly six years
.
Both of these factors can make the market prone to wild swings
.

Given OPEC+'s hesitation to release supply, and the reluctance of ailing U.
S.
producers to drill and borrow for financial self-discipline, a $100 hit by crude oil prices is largely considered inevitable
.

The latest news on U.
S.
crude oil

U.
S.
crude imports averaged 6.
471 million barrels per day last week, down 28,000 barrels from the previous week, and refined products imports averaged 2.
3 million barrels per day, up 327,000 barrels
from the previous week.
Total U.
S.
commercial oil inventories fell by 15.
87 million barrels
.
Total U.
S.
refinery processing averaged 15.
67 million barrels per day, down 115,000 barrels from the previous week; Refinery runs were 89.
8 percent, unchanged
from the previous week.

The latest data showed that US crude oil inventories were 428.
286 million barrels, down 4.
58 million barrels from the previous week; U.
S.
gasoline inventories totaled 218.
585 million barrels, down 720,000 barrels from the previous week; Distillate inventories were 123.
758 million barrels, down 2.
85 million barrels
from the previous week.
Crude oil inventories were 14% lower than a year earlier; about 7% lower than the same period in the past five years; Gasoline inventories were 28% lower than a year earlier; about 6% lower than the same period in the past five years; Distillate inventories were 18 percent lower than a year ago and about 9 percent lower than a year ago in the same period over the past five years
.

2022 crude oil market demand outlook

Expectations of a sharp recovery in global crude oil demand also supported the resumption of oil prices
.
As the economy began to recover from the pandemic, global oil demand picked up sharply in 2021
.
Despite efforts to reduce fossil fuel consumption to mitigate climate change, total global oil consumption could set a new record
in 2022.

Gasoline and diesel consumption has surged
this year as consumers resume travel and business activities.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), crude oil consumption is expected to reach 99.
53 million b/d in 2022, up from 96.
2 million b/d this year and only slightly lower than the 99.
55 million b/d
in 2019.

What are the outlook trends for the industry in 2022? For more detailed industry analysis, please click to view the "2021-2026 Crude Oil Industry In-depth Analysis and Investment Value Research and Consulting Report"
published by the Puhua Research Institute of China Research Institute.