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On January 13, the National High-end Think Tank China National Petroleum Corporation Economic and Technological Research Institute held the "2019 Domestic and Foreign Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" conference in Beijing
.
vinyl
Based on a comprehensive analysis of the development model of the oil and gas industry at home and abroad in 2019, the report believes that there are several characteristics:
Based on a comprehensive analysis of the development model of the oil and gas industry at home and abroad in 2019, the report believes that there are several characteristics:domestic
domesticDomestic oil production stopped falling and rebounded, and the rapid increase in oil and gas dependence on foreign countries was curbed
.
It is estimated that domestic oil and gas production is expected to reach 194 million tons and 190 billion cubic meters respectively in 2020
.
China's refined oil consumption has entered a stage of medium-to-low growth, and the export pressure of refined oil has continued to increase
.
New progress was made in the construction of the natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system
.
The excess refining energy is becoming more and more serious and has a tendency to expand to the low-end downstream of refining and chemical integration
.
Strategic breakthroughs have been made in international oil and gas cooperation
.
The market-oriented reform process of the oil and gas industry has been significantly accelerated
.
internationality
internationalityExercising influence on the global oil and gas market has become an important starting point for the United States to implement the "America First" strategy
.
With the help of energy independence, the United States has strengthened its control and influence on the global oil market
.
OPEC's internal cohesion and overall influence declined, and Qatar and Ecuador withdrew successively
.
Taken together, although geopolitical factors may lead to short-term and local supply shortages and induce price fluctuations, the fundamentals of supply and demand do not support a significant rise in international oil prices
.
Global natural gas supply and demand continued to be loose
.
In 2019, the global natural gas trade increased by 9.
1%, basically the same as the previous year, and the LNG trade increased by 12.
2%, nearly twice the growth rate of pipeline gas trade
.
The linkage between the Eurasian and Asian markets is highlighted, and both the European NBP price and the average Asian LNG spot price have experienced a deep drop of about 40%
.
It is expected that in 2020, the global natural gas supply and demand will continue to be loose, the price will remain low, and the game between the supply and demand sides, traditional and emerging countries will continue to intensify
.
The report predicts that in 2020, the global economic trend will remain weak, and international oil prices will remain volatile, with the average price of Brent crude in the range of $60-65 per barrel
.
In view of the unstable global macroeconomic and political situation, especially the trade disputes between the United States and major economies, and the great uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the average annual level of international oil prices dropped to below US$50/barrel or exceeded US$75.
The /bucket situation may also arise
.
