In the first half of the year, crude oil products maintained an increase in production of refining overcapacity

According to the reporter learned a set of data from the 2022 National Petroleum and Chemical Industry Economic Situation Analysis Conference: In the first half of this year, China's crude oil and refined oil production maintained growth, the national crude oil production increased by 4%, and the output of refined oil increased by 1.
7%, of which gasoline increased by 0.
2% and diesel oil increased by 15.
6%.

At present, China's refining capacity is at the highest level
in the world.
In 2021, China became the world's largest oil refining country for the first time, with a refining capacity of 910 million tons, accounting for 18% of the global refining capacity, surpassing the 907 million tons of
the United States.
However, in the first half of this year, the capacity utilization rate of China's refining equipment was only about 71%, far below the global average
of 90%.
The fact that China's refining capacity is surplus relative to the domestic refined oil market objectively exists
.

According to statistics, in recent years, the production, consumption and export of refined oil products in China are: 2018 output of 360 million tons, consumption of 319 million tons, exports of 46.
081 million tons; 2019 output of 360 million tons, consumption of 310 million tons, exports of 55.
376 million tons; 2020 output of 330 million tons, consumption of 290 million tons, exports of 45.
743 million tons; 2021 output of 357 million tons, consumption of 319 million tons, exports of 40.
332
。 In the first half of this year, the output of refined oil products was 177 million tons, and the consumption was 166 million tons
.

It can be seen that while overcapacity, China's refined oil exports as a whole show a downward trend year by year, with exports of 11.
907 million tons in the first half of this year, and the export volume fell by 54.
7% year-on-year, which was greater
than in previous years.

Fu Xiangsheng, vice president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, believes that on the one hand, China's refining capacity is surplus relative to the domestic refined oil market, and domestic chemical new materials and organic chemicals have a large number of imports every year, so China's petrochemical industry is a structural
excesse.
The data shows that a large number of refining capacity that has been built in China cannot give full play to its effectiveness, and the capacity utilization rate of refining equipment in the first half of this year is only 71%, which is further widened
from the world's average of 90%.
At the same time, China's refined oil exports are gradually reducing export quotas
in the context of the "double carbon" policy.
On the other hand, the international refined oil market demand is strong, and the price of refined oil products remains high due to the impact of the epidemic and sudden geopolitical conflicts
.
With the gradual recovery of the economy, the operating rate of overseas refineries is basically in the stage of rebounding to a high level of operation, and the refining plants in the United States, India and other countries are producing at full capacity
.
Our control of exports is equivalent to ceding the high-priced international market to others, causing a large number of domestic ready-made production capacity to be idle, and missing a good opportunity to
narrow a large deficit.

Fu Xiangsheng said that in the context of "steady growth and guaranteed growth" in China, the full release of production capacity and full performance of the completed production equipment are direct and effective stable growth
.
It is believed that under the premise of ensuring reasonable inventory and ensuring the supply of the domestic market, it may be possible to support the production of advanced devices and high-quality production capacity with high technical level, high energy efficiency level and low emissions, and obtain profits in the international market, which can not only improve the quality of enterprise operations, but also achieve effective and stable growth
.

In terms of refined oil prices, in the first half of this year, the domestic refined oil market as a whole showed an "M" shaped trend, and spot prices were at a high level
in the past five years.
According to the 2022 mid-year analysis report of the refined oil market released by Longzhong Information, in the first half of this year, the opening price of the gasoline market was 7840 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 9352 yuan / ton, up 1512 yuan / ton, an increase of 19.
28%; The opening price of the diesel market was 7300 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 8476 yuan / ton, up 1176 yuan / ton, an increase of 16.
11%.

Gasoline and diesel prices drive in the cost logic and supply and demand logic between the continuous conversion, the first half of the year by geopolitical factors, international oil prices have always been high hovering, refined oil prices passively rose but not as much as the cost increase; From March to May, due to the repeated outbreaks of the epidemic in many points in China, the contradiction between supply and demand became increasingly prominent, and the price of refined oil products also rationally adjusted back with the trend; In the later period, thanks to many favorable boosts such as economy and policy, the market supply and demand pattern gradually evolved to a good point; However, the decline after the cost end, the seasonal demand off-season and the end of the sales half-year task still have a certain pressure on the price of steam and firewood, and the domestic refined oil market continues to rise first and then suppress the trend
.
The analysis believes that based on the comprehensive consideration of the domestic demand side and the supply side, driven by the good recovery of the industrial chain in the second half of the year, it is expected that the supply and demand pattern of the gasoline and diesel market will evolve
with a high probability.