India's natural rubber production capacity is expected to decline in the next few years

According to a foreign media report on December 28, due to the increasing proportion of old plantations with extremely low productivity, the greatest potential of natural rubber production in India will decline in the next few years
.
Assuming that the current trend of new planting and replanting remains unchanged, the maximum potential output, currently about 980,000 tons/year, will drop to 889,000 tons in 2030 and only 349,000 tons in 2040
.


Since 2012, due to low prices, natural rubber production has declined and has remained below the maximum potential production capacity
.
Nevertheless, since 2010, the demand for natural rubber has been steadily increasing at an annual growth rate of nearly 2.
5%
.
Although the annual growth rate of the Indian economy may be much higher than 7%, it is expected that this number will remain strong
.


This will inevitably increase the shortage of domestic natural rubber production in India in the future, and put the Indian rubber industry with annual sales of more than 1 billion rupees into trouble
.


In 2018-19, India's domestic natural rubber production gap was about 560,000 tons, accounting for 46% of total consumption
.
During the 2020-21 period of the new crown epidemic, the gap has been reduced, but it is expected to increase substantially in the future
.
It is estimated that the gaps in 2030 and 2040 are 921,000 tons and 218,000 tons respectively
.


By 2030, this gap will account for 51% of total consumption, and by 2040 it will account for 86%.
This figure is shocking
.
These gap estimates are calculated based on the maximum potential production
.
Due to various reasons, including low prices, climate change, etc.
, the actual output may be much lower than the potential output
.
This will further exacerbate the shortage of natural rubber supply in the country
.


  During the period 2022-2027, the Indian automotive tire market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.
6%, and this trend is likely to continue, driven by the fast-growing automotive industry
.
Large tire companies recognize this and have expanded their production capacity over the years.
Together, these companies consume more than 70% of the country's existing natural rubber
.
Since 2012, the sudden reversal of natural rubber production in India has brought some kind of crisis to the Indian tire industry
.
The industry can solve this problem in two ways, which seems to be a simple solution
.
However, in the long run, both have serious economic and environmental sustainability issues
.