Institution: Increased uncertainty about crude oil

The Fed spokesman's speech rekindled uncertainty about future interest rate hikes, financial markets were under pressure again, the dollar was boosted, OPEC continued to cut its global oil demand forecast for this year, and international oil prices closed lower
after rising intraday.
As of the close on November 14: December WTI fell 3.
09 to $85.
87 / barrel, down 3.
47%; January Brent fell 2.
85 to $93.
14 a barrel, down 2.
97%.

China's crude oil futures SC workhorse 2301 closed up 3.
9 yuan / barrel to 672.
1 yuan / barrel
.

Insufficient spare capacity under OPEC+ control and risk premiums from the
Russia-Ukraine conflict.
From the news side, first, the recent fall in the US CPI exceeded expectations, boosting the market, but yesterday Fed Governor Waller said in his speech that the Fed "still has some way to go" before ending the interest rate hike, which has re-triggered the uncertainty of future interest rate hikes, financial markets are under pressure again, and the dollar has been boosted, resulting in lower oil prices
.
Second, OPEC monthly report: OPEC lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth for the whole year of 2022 to 2.
55 million b/d and lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth for the whole year of 2023 to 2.
24 million b/d
.
Third, the total number of oil rigs in the United States increased by nine to 622 last week, and the EIA expects US shale oil production to increase by 91,000 b/d in December to 9.
19 million b/d
.
The supply side has improved, suppressing oil prices
.

On the whole, OPEC entered the implementation month of production cuts in November, the Fed raised interest rates, the EU sanctions against Russia are about to take effect, the support below oil prices has increased, and US inflation has eased, but the economic environment is still difficult to improve in the short term, it is still deteriorating, the upper space is limited, the current long and short uncertainty is large, it is recommended to wait and see
for the time being.