Institution: Oil prices continue to rise

【Crude oil close】As of the close on January 12: WTI in February 2023 rose 0.
98 to $78.
39 / barrel, an increase of 1.
26%; In March 2023, Brent rose 1.
36 to $84.
03 per barrel, or 1.
64%.

China's crude oil futures SC workhorse 2303 closed up 7.
2 yuan / barrel to 529.
6 yuan / barrel
.

【Market dynamics】From the news side, first, the US CPI rose 6.
5% year-on-year in December, in line with market expectations, and the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 25BP
next time 。 Second, the actual announcement of EIA crude oil inventory changes in the United States for the week ended January 6 increased by 18.
962 million barrels, the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 800,000 barrels to 371.
6 million barrels, EIA gasoline inventories actually increased by 4.
114 million barrels, and EIA refined oil inventories actually decreased by 1.
069 million barrels, mainly due to the sharp increase
in crude oil inventories last week due to the closure of most refineries in the US cold wave 。 Third, the Ministry of Commerce recently issued the second batch of crude oil non-state trade import allowances in 2023, with a quota of 111.
82 million tons, up 112.
2%
from the second batch last year.
Combined with some of the allowable amounts issued in advance in the early stage, a total of 131.
82 million tons
of imported crude oil quotas have been issued so far in 2023.
The recent surge in domestic refined oil prices, especially diesel prices, has boosted expectations for a recovery in Chinese demand
.
Fourth, a G7 official said the alliance would seek to set two price caps on Russian refined products in February, one for products traded at a premium and the other for products traded at a discount
.

【Strategic view】The pressure of macro risks is increasing, but the recovery of Chinese demand has boosted crude oil prices, and the US CPI has fallen as expected, and oil prices are expected to continue to rise
.