Institution: Oil prices fluctuated slightly

【Crude oil close】As of the close on January 10: WTI in February 2023 rose 0.
49 to $75.
12 / barrel, an increase of 0.
65%; In March 2023, Brent rose 0.
45, or 0.
56%, to $80.
1 per barrel
.
China's crude oil futures SC workhorse 2303 closed down 0.
3 yuan/barrel to 527.
6 yuan/barrel
.

【Market dynamics】From the news side, first, last week due to the cold wave of most refineries in the United States, resulting in a sharp increase in crude oil inventories, the United States to January 6 API crude oil inventories increased by 14.
865 million barrels, API gasoline inventories increased by 1.
83 million barrels, after the data was released, the price did not change much
.
Second, the Ministry of Commerce recently issued the second batch of crude oil non-state trade import allowances in 2023, with a quota of 111.
82 million tons, an increase of 112.
2%
over the second batch last year.
Combined with some of the allowable amounts issued in advance in the early stage, a total of 131.
82 million tons
of imported crude oil quotas have been issued so far in 2023.
Third, the United States refused oil from the oil industry in the first round of attempts to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR
).
According to sources, the Biden administration decided to postpone replenishment of the emergency oil reserve because the government decided to postpone the replenishment of the emergency oil reserve
because it believed that the oil offers received were either too expensive or did not meet the required specifications.

【Core logic】The main logic that currently dominates oil prices is still the expectation of economic downturn under the Fed's interest rate hike, insufficient spare capacity under OPEC+ control, and risk premium brought about by the
Russia-Ukraine conflict.

【Strategic Viewpoint】The pressure of macro risks is increasing, and the market is waiting for the results of the US CPI to consolidate the expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike.