Institutions: International crude oil prices rebounded slightly

EIA inventory data was mixed, and international crude oil prices rebounded
slightly.

WTI rose 1.
60 to $83.
54 a barrel in October, up 2.
0%; November Brent rose 1.
15, or 1.
3%,
to $89.
15 a barrel.
China crude oil futures SC pushed 2211 to close down 57 yuan / barrel to 7.
236 yuan / barrel
.

Judging from market news, first, EIA crude oil inventories rose by 8.
844 million barrels yesterday, but the strategic reserve released 7.
527 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 333,000 barrels, refined oil increased by 95,000 barrels, and production remained unchanged at 12.
1 million barrels
。 Second, the recent European gasoline cracking fell to around $3, below the 5-year average, diesel cracking fluctuated around $40, still at a historical high, gasoline is no longer in short supply, relying on diesel demand alone is difficult to support the overall demand for crude oil, while the domestic epidemic has not been effectively resolved, Chengdu, Shenzhen lockdown prolonged, aggravating the market's concerns
about demand.
Third, the dollar has continued to strengthen recently, and the dollar index has risen to around 110 points, causing greater suppression
on crude oil.
Strong market expectations for the Fed's interest rate hike have triggered fears
of a recession.

According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed by September is 24%, and the probability of a 75 basis point rate hike is 76%.

The current market trading logic is still a trade-off between the risk premium brought by Russia's reduction in energy supply and the Fed's interest rate hike and the slowdown in global economic growth, and short-term volatility will increase, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines
.