International Oil Prices Turn from Falling to Rising for Several Days The "eighth fall" in domestic gasoline and diesel prices has failed

International oil prices staged a major market reversal in just 10 days, rising for 5 consecutive trading days, which disappointed the "eighth fall" of domestic refined oil products expected by the market before the National Day this year
.

A new round of refined oil price adjustment window will be opened
at 24:00 on October 10.
Xinhua News Agency recently quoted the National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center data that the average price of international crude oil in this round has decreased slightly compared with the previous round, and considering the exchange rate fluctuations, it is expected that in this round of refined oil price adjustment window, the possibility of price adjustment "stranded" is greater
.
According to the current oil price management measures, if the price adjustment is "stranded", the unadjusted amount will be included in the accumulation or offset
of the next price adjustment.

Monitoring data obtained by The Paper from a number of commodity information agencies shows that it is a foregone conclusion that the price of refined oil products in this price adjustment window will not be adjusted
.

According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of October 9, the ninth working day of crude oil change rate of 0.
59%, the average price of reference oil is 87.
2 US dollars, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices should be raised by 15 yuan / ton, and did not exceed the standard line of the increase (50 yuan / ton), the current round of refined oil retail price adjustment will usher in the first "stranded"
this year.

Lu Qiaohui, an analyst at Jinlianchuang refined oil products, said that during the National Day holiday, international crude oil rebounded strongly, and OPEC+ announced a sharp reduction in production by 2 million barrels / day to boost oil prices
.
Since the beginning of the year, the retail price of refined oil products has been all the way up, and ushered in the largest increase
since 2013.
Since mid-to-late June, affected by the decline in crude oil prices, the high retail price of domestic refined oil products has fallen, cashing in the "five consecutive declines"
.
If the price adjustment window is "stranded", diesel in major cities across the country (except for Tibet, a high-priced area) will remain in the "7 yuan era"
.

Dai Tiandong, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that during this cycle, international oil prices as a whole showed a continuous upward trend
after the first shock and decline.
At the beginning of the period, due to the sharp interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the decline of the global stock market, international crude oil was mainly a shock decline, followed by a large-scale reduction in OPEC oil producers, a decline in U.
S.
crude oil and refined oil inventories, and international oil prices rose
for five consecutive working days.
Affected by this, the rate of change of crude oil in domestic reference gradually turned from negative to positive
.
Based on the closing price on October 7, it is expected that domestic gasoline and diesel should be raised by 10 yuan / ton
.
Since the adjustment red line of 50 yuan / ton has not been exceeded, the retail price limit of refined oil products in this round will not be adjusted
.

"The resolution of OPEC+ joint production cuts has formed a strong positive and promoted the rise
of international oil prices.
" Zhongyu information analyst Zhang Hyatt said that the international oil price has risen for several days, breaking through $90, which may be offset by the previous worries about the global economic downturn of crude oil, which is directly positive for the price adjustment, and the domestic refined oil price adjustment is expected to turn into "stranded"
.

According to the current refined oil price mechanism, the domestic price of refined oil is adjusted every 10 working days according to the price changes of crude oil in the international market
.
When the price adjustment range is less than 50 yuan per ton, no adjustment is made, and it is added or offset
in the next price adjustment.
Since the domestic refined oil price adjustment is linked to the average international oil price in the first 10 working days, how to adjust each price mainly depends on the comparison between the average international oil price in the first 10 working days before the price adjustment and the average value of the previous 10 working days, rather than simply determined
by the international oil price changes in the days before the price adjustment.

According to the statistics of the surging news, since 2022, the retail price limit of refined oil products has undergone 18 adjustments, of which 11 have been raised and 7 have been reduced
.
After the rise and fall offset each other, the prices of gasoline and diesel rose by 1305 yuan / ton and 1255 yuan / ton respectively during the year, corresponding to a rise of about
1.
02 yuan, 1.
09 yuan and 1.
07 yuan per liter of No.
92 gasoline, No.
95 gasoline and No.
0 diesel.
After the price adjustment "stranded" on October 10, the retail price limits of No.
92 and No.
95 gasoline in most parts of China are still in the "8 yuan era"
.