International oil prices will fluctuate at a high level this year Eurasian gas prices will continue to grow sharply

On April 12, the latest edition of the annual "Domestic and Foreign Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" of the China National Petroleum Corporation Economic and Technological Research Institute was released
.
The report believes that the main tone of the development of the oil and gas industry at home and abroad in 2021 is recovery and transformation, and this main tone will continue
in 2022.
However, the intensification of the great power game and the impact of major geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment, the international environment is more complex and severe, instability and uncertainty have become important features of the year, and the risk issues in recovery and transformation will become an important part
of the industry's need to guard.

In the past year, the international oil market has recovered significantly, and the average price of Brent crude oil has risen sharply to $70.
95 / barrel, an increase of 64.
18%; It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate at a high level in 2022 due to the intensification of geopolitical conflicts and rising market panic, and the possibility of
short-term oil prices exceeding historical highs is not excluded.
In 2021, the prices of the three major global natural gas markets soared, with gas prices in Europe, Asia and the United States increasing by 397%, 280% and 93% respectively; In 2022, affected by the geopolitical dispute, it is expected that the entry of bulk natural gas into Europe in the west is blocked, and the probability will flow east to Asia, and the US LNG will fill the gap in Europe, thereby changing the direction of global trade flows
, and Eurasian gas prices will continue to grow significantly.

The report shows that in 2021, domestic apparent oil consumption showed a negative growth rarely seen in recent years, and the dependence on oil abroad fell to 72.
2%; It is expected that the growth of domestic oil consumption will turn from negative to positive in 2022, and foreign dependence will resume growth
again.
In the same period, domestic natural gas consumption increased by 12%, and foreign dependence rose to 46%; The growth rate of natural gas consumption is expected to slow down
in 2022.
In 2021, the domestic oil and gas exploration and development investment intensified, to ensure the key to promote efficiency, to achieve a sustained double increase in oil and gas production reserves, crude oil production increased by more than 2%, reaching 199 million tons, natural gas production for the first time exceeded 200 billion cubic meters; it is expected that in 2022 domestic oil and gas exploration and development will continue to accelerate the development trend, the National Energy Administration recently issued the "2022 Energy Work Guidelines" clearly defined specific indicators, crude oil production of about 200 million tons, natural gas production of about 214 billion cubic meters
。

Report data shows a net decrease in the world's refining capacity for the first time since 1988; China's refining capacity continues to grow rapidly, catching up with the United States by the end of 2021, reaching 910 million tons / year, and it is expected that 2022 will continue the rapid growth of refining capacity, which is different from the world's major refining countries
.
In 2021, China's ethylene capacity soared by 8.
5 million tons/year, and the ethylene equivalent self-sufficiency rate increased significantly to 66.
2%.

It is expected that China will become the world's largest refining and ethylene producer in 2022, but it is large but not strong, and excess refining capacity will restrict the effective development of
China's refining and chemical industry.

After the darkest moment of 2020, the overall recovery of the oil and gas industry in 2021, oil companies out of the predicament, operating performance indicators rebounded sharply in
an all-round way.
With the carbon neutrality target and related commitments put forward by various countries, the transformation and development of oil companies has accelerated significantly, the upstream center of gravity is "oil to gas", the downstream center of gravity is "oil conversion", according to the company's own reality, the selective scale development of new energy business has become the general trend
of the transformation and development of oil enterprises.

In 2022, the world economy is still in a period of
recovery with the epidemic.
Under the influence of the three major factors of the continuous recurrence of the new crown epidemic, the increase in the pressure to reduce emissions, and the sudden change in the geopolitical situation, the downward pressure on the development of the world economy has increased, and the uncertainty of the operating and development environment of the oil and gas industry has increased sharply, and risk prevention will become an important annual feature of
the development of the oil and gas industry.
China will continue to introduce more policies
to promote supply, equity and low-carbon development.
At the same time, in view of the deviations in the previous period of development, the policy orientation will also be adjusted accordingly, guiding the energy industry to establish first and then break, and the basic role of fossil energy in the transition period will be better played
.

The "Report on the Development of the Oil and Gas Industry at Home and Abroad" has been published for 14 consecutive years since it was first published
in 2008.