Inventories are still at a low level and support is strong below Shanghai aluminum

On the macro front, yesterday's US economic data was stronger, and the market's expectations that the Fed's subsequent interest rate hike may be hawkish rose again, and the US dollar edged above 104.
3
.
Domestically, although the tone of "homeowners do not speculate" remains unchanged, the real estate stimulus policy continues
.
Recently, local epidemic prevention policies have been further relaxed, but concerns about whether the epidemic will form a drag on the economy in the short term are rising, and market optimism has weakened
slightly.

On the supply side, overseas energy pressure has gradually eased, and it is expected that the possibility of further reduction in overseas aluminum production capacity in 23 years is low, but the increase is limited
.
Domestically, the impact of production restrictions has not been further expanded, but the pace of capacity recovery in Sichuan is slow, while the affected production capacity range in Yunnan is basically maintained
.
In Guizhou, due to the impact of electricity, there may be a reduction of 280,000 tons of production, and there will still be 180,000 tons of new capacity or delays
.
At present, the affected production capacity is mainly affected by winter and hydropower problems, and it is expected that the release of production capacity will need to wait until the second half of
next year.
In terms of downstream demand, there are differences in trading in various places, and holders in some regions have a strong willingness to raise prices, active transactions, and fair transactions
.

In terms of terminal consumption, although the actual demand is generally weak due to seasonal influences, the recent macro expectations continue to improve
.
In terms of inventory, exchange inventories and social inventories have risen slightly, but they are still at an absolute low
.

On the whole, the upward drive of the US dollar index is weakening, the macro drag is slowing down, and although the short-term domestic macro profit has weakened slightly, it is not ruled out that there will still be stimulus policies in the future, superimposed on the supply side of Shanghai aluminum capacity release constraints, inventories are still at a low level, and the support below Shanghai aluminum is strong
.