Iran and the EU prepare to restart nuclear negotiations before the end of November, crude oil fell in response!

On October 28, market pessimism continued to spread, and the domestic futures market varieties fell more and rose less
.
Among them, fuel oil fell by more than 5%, low fuel oil, PTA, etc.
fell by more than 3%, and crude oil fell by more than 2%.

Affected by the external market, superimposed on domestic policies to drive the general decline of energy-based commodities, China's crude oil futures have also seen a certain degree of correction
.
Crude oil plunged sharply at the morning open, falling nearly 5% as high as yesterday, and rebounded in the afternoon due to a change in market sentiment, and the main contract fell 2.
67% to close at 517.
5 yuan
by the end of the afternoon.

From the perspective of foreign oil price performance, according to the latest media reports, Algeria's "News" published a news entitled "International crude oil prices fell to the lowest level in two weeks" on October 28, saying that at 5:02 GMT on the 28th, the price of British Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.
9% to $83 per barrel, and the price of intermediate crude oil in West Texas fell 1.
7% to $81.
27 per barrel, which is the lowest level
in two weeks.
The report analysis said that the decline in crude oil prices is largely due to the data showing a sudden increase in US crude oil inventories and the rising trend
of the new crown epidemic in Europe.

It is understood that since Tuesday, external crude oil has recorded a decline
for two consecutive days after rising for 9 weeks.
Du Bingqin, an energy and chemical analyst at Everbright Futures, told the Futures Daily reporter that the strengthening of the early crude oil outer disk, especially WTI crude oil, is mainly due to the sharp decline in the inventory of Cushing in the WTI delivery site brought about by pipeline adjustment, and the absolute value of its inventory has been at a low level
in the same period of nearly 5 years.

Du Bingqin said that this week, Cushing regional inventories continued to decline, the largest decline since January this year, but due to the overall sharp increase in EIA and API crude oil inventories and refined oil inventories, oil prices fell back at
a high level after 9 consecutive weeks of rise.

It is reported that on Wednesday, local time, the EU and Iran agreed to restart the 2015 Iranian nuclear negotiations before the end of November
.
Iran's chief nuclear negotiator and deputy foreign minister Baghari said on social media on the same day: "We agreed to start negotiations before the end of November, and a specific date
will be announced next week.
" ”

"This week's Iranian nuclear agreement negotiations have brought new progress, in the current OPEC+ production willingness is not strong, the Iranian nuclear agreement negotiations have become one of the means for the United States to suppress oil prices, if Iran's crude oil production is released, it will bring certain pressure
to the global oil supply side next year.
" Du Bingqin said
.

In the view of Yang Jiaming, an asphalt fuel researcher at CITIC Futures, Brazil raised interest rates sharply this week, and U.
S.
Treasury bonds continued to strengthen at the near end, raising liquidity expectations, and the United States continued to pressure OPEC to increase production and accelerate the pace of
negotiations in order to ease inflationary pressures.
Iran and the European Union are expected to negotiate a nuclear deal in November with high
odds.
In addition, as Russia increases natural gas supply to Europe, natural gas prices are expected to stabilize or fall, then the increase in gas demand for oil substitution is expected to gradually fall, and the support of EIA crude oil stocks on prices during the week also weakened
.

From the current fundamental and monthly difference structure, Du Bingqin told reporters that global crude oil supply and demand are still in a strong state
.
On the supply side, U.
S.
shale oil has seen a slow increase in production due to strong capital expenditure discipline and a background of forward carbon neutrality following the current rise in oil prices above $80/bbl; OPEC+ is currently increasing production by a slower than expected rate and has the incentive to maintain high oil prices, so supply is also inelastic
.

"On the demand side, gasoline and diesel demand has performed well recently, refinery profits have been significantly repaired, and jet coal consumption is also recovering, which has now recovered to about half of what it was before the epidemic; The increase in alternative demand for crude oil brought about by the natural gas shortage in the fourth quarter is also expected to be around
600,000 barrels per day.
Therefore, for global crude oil inventories, the fourth quarter will still maintain the trend of destocking
.
In addition, we will continue to pay attention to whether there are any changes
to the OPEC+ monthly meeting next month on the production increase agreement.
Du Bingqin said
.