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Under the shadow of the strengthening of the US dollar index and the trade war, the external aluminum price continued to close down on Friday, and the three-month aluminum price on the London Stock Exchange closed at 2027.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
49%; Shanghai aluminum overnight trading oscillation, the main 1809 contract closed at 14405 yuan / ton
.
On the macro front, the US non-farm payrolls rose by 157,000 in July, updating the lowest since March 2018, but the unemployment rate fell to 3.
9%, and wage growth remained unchanged, the US dollar index was volatile, and the commodity sector showed divergence
.
Domestically, the central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 0 to 20%, the RMB strengthened against the US dollar, and ICBC recently issued a document to various branches, clearly requiring to increase project reserves in infrastructure, shantytowns and other fields, and the demand side should not be overly pessimistic
.
In terms of the market, the overall transaction of the morning spot market is not good, a small amount of downstream stocking, middlemen are cautious trading, and the mainstream transaction price in Shanghai is 14300 yuan / ton, which is about 50 lower than the futures
.
The mainstream transaction price in Guangdong is around 14450 yuan / ton
.
Recently, relevant documents on environmental protection and production restrictions in the heating season have been issued in China, and specific measures need to be issued
by local departments.
The production limit in the heating season will further limit the oversupply, which is very beneficial to the improvement of domestic supply and demand in the medium and long term, and then the later aluminum price
.
In terms of news, the Shandong government issued a document that enterprises with particularly excellent environmental behavior are exempted from the implementation of peak shifting production, and the impact of environmental protection production restrictions on electrolytic aluminum production capacity may be smaller than expected, in addition, the current traditional off-season has a certain drag on aluminum prices, and the positive factors mainly come from the market's expectation of strong demand in the second half of the year, aluminum futures prices should not be bearish, and the probability of strong shocks is expected to be large
.
Short-term domestic consumption is unlikely to improve significantly, and the negative impact of the trade war is far from over
.
Therefore, short-term aluminum prices may be mainly
adjusted by oscillation.
Operationally, it is recommended to maintain the idea of pullback
buying.
