It is difficult for the United States to deter Saudi Arabia and other countries from reducing oil production

On October 5, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and non-OPEC oil producers, led by Russia, held their 33rd ministerial meeting in Vienna, Austria, and decided to reduce oil production by an average of 2 million barrels per day from November until December 2023
.
As soon as the news came out, the international crude oil futures market price continued to rise, and the United States immediately expressed disappointment with Saudi Arabia, and more fiercely worded Democratic congressmen threatened to retaliate, which attracted media attention
.

U.
S.
Democratic lawmakers propose the withdrawal of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system
deployed by the United States in Saudi Arabia.

The reduction in production in oil-producing countries has greatly exceeded expectations

The ministerial meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers is the first in-person meeting
since March 2020.
The meeting was originally planned to be held by video conference, but it was suddenly changed and ministers and representatives of 23 countries were temporarily convened for face-to-face talks, which attracted attention
from the outside world.

OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers that decided to significantly reduce production this time are also known as the "OPEC+" mechanism, of which non-OPEC oil producers include Russia, Mexico, Azerbaijan and other countries
.
The oil-producing countries began working together in late 2016 and have since evolved into a series of meeting mechanisms, including ministerial meetings
.

In a communiqué issued after the meeting, OPEC and non-OPEC producers stressed that the production cuts were intended to "respond to the uncertainty of the global economy and oil market outlook with a proactive and pre-emptive strategy"
.
Objectively, OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers decided to significantly reduce production at least four reasons
.

First, affected by negative factors such as the intensification of global geopolitical games and the continuous spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the downward pressure on the world economy is increasing, which may lead to continued sluggish oil demand in the short and medium term, and OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers need to take precautions to adjust the supply-side "valve"
.
Second, the new round of EU sanctions on Russian crude oil and petroleum products will take effect in December and February next year, which sets a ceiling on the export price of Russian oil, affecting the interests of oil producers and market rules, OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers have to deal with
it in advance.
Third, at present, compared with the already high natural gas and coal prices, global oil prices are still hovering at a relatively low level below $100, and a small rise in the future is in the interests of
OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers.
Fourth, although the prospects of the "Iranian nuclear agreement" are uncertain, the willingness of many parties to negotiate is still there
.
If an agreement is reached and Iran's oil production capacity is released, OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers need to prepare
for the balance of supply and demand in advance.

It is worth noting that the 2 million barrels per day reduction in average production announced by OPEC and non-OPEC producers is only the target figure
.
Due to multiple factors, the actual reduction in production may be much lower than the target value
.
At present, the oil production of many member countries, including Russia, is below the quota target, and there is little
room for production reduction.
Therefore, the reduction is mainly borne
by countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Saudi Energy Minister Salman said the actual cut was expected to be 1 million to 1.
1 million barrels
per day.
This also shows that the actual effect of this round of production cuts is relatively mild and controllable, and the key adjustment key is in the hands
of the Gulf countries.

US threat or "words speak louder than deeds"

In July this year, the highlight of Biden's visit to the Middle East was to go to Saudi Arabia to "look for oil"
.
Since then, the United States has worked with European allies to continuously pressure Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries to increase production, but with little success
.
The sharp reduction in production between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers is a direct statement
.
Many US Democratic Party politicians angrily accused Saudi Arabia and other countries of "stabbing in the back"
.

At present, the election politics in the United States are heating up, and OPEC's decision to cut production with non-OPEC oil producers has triggered a new round of quarrels
.
US Republican politicians pointed out that this is a huge "diplomatic failure", and the United States has "lost face and broken inside" in Middle Eastern countries, and it is already difficult to control the economic difficulties caused by the increase in domestic inflation
.
US Democratic Party lawmakers have stepped up their criticism of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries
.
On October 6, three Democratic lawmakers proposed the withdrawal of U.
S.
troops and missile defense systems
in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
On October 10, Menendez, chairman of the U.
S.
Senate Foreign Relations Committee, urged the government to freeze all cooperation with Saudi Arabia, including arms sales and security cooperation
.
In response, Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Jubeir responded: "Saudi Arabia has not politicized, weaponized oil.
.
.
IMHO, the main reason for the high oil prices in the United States is that there has been a continuous shortage of refining facilities in the United States for more than 20 years, and the United States has not built new refineries
for decades.
”

The White House, while expressing disappointment, had to take a number of countermeasures
.
First, release more strategic oil reserve stocks to stabilize oil prices
.
Second, the energy minister was asked to seek additional measures to immediately increase domestic production
.
Third, consider easing sanctions against Venezuela and reopening its oil exports
.
Finally, senior senators from both parties are urged to push for the Anti-Oil Production and Export Monopoly Act to put pressure
on OPEC.
On the whole, at present, the US strategic oil reserve has fallen to the lowest level in nearly 40 years, and it is difficult to release greater actions, and other measures are "far water is difficult to quench near thirst", which is more intimidating than actual actions, and the countermeasures are limited
.

The oil dispute reflects the changes in the Middle East

At present, the pattern of the game of great powers is constantly changing
.
Looking at the Middle East, the US strategic strength has continued to shrink, and the regional situation has shown a state of differentiation and reorganization of "maritime hegemony" after the ebb tide in the mainland hinterland, and three major trends
have formed.
First, after protracted disputes, peace and development have gradually become the common aspiration of regional countries, and Shah-Iraq relations and Arab-Israeli relations have eased
simultaneously.
Second, the influence of extraterritorial forces on the Middle East tends to be diversified and balanced, and the strategic autonomy of regional countries is constantly rising
.
Third, the regional powers represented by the Arab countries of the Gulf are striving to seek reform methods suitable for their future development and seeking new favorable positions in the changing situation
.

Observing the production reduction decisions of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers in this complex context, it can be seen that this is the meaning
of Saudi Arabia and other countries seeking innovation and change, and seeking to maximize their own interests with a more independent attitude.
The analysis believes that at present, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries have broken through the "oil curse" for domestic demand (referring to the fact that countries with rich oil resources have not developed well in the process of developing oil resources, but have caused the people to fall into hardship) and lack of human resources; External demand continues to compete with major oil-producing countries such as the United States, and cope with regional chaos
.
Therefore, in recent years, Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan have tried to take the transformation of the energy industry as the core and promote the reform of the two countries in the fields of fiscal taxation, labor market and social culture, hoping to use this as a breakthrough to give the country new endogenous development impetus
.

However, analysts believe that the United States is still hoping to exert influence with "offshore balance" in the Middle East, and although the balance of asymmetric interdependence between Saudi Arabia and the United States has changed, its core demands such as security dependence on the United States have not fundamentally changed, so it will not break with
the United States.
It can be expected that OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers will reduce production both because of interests and because of interests
.