January 20 aluminum market brief commentary

At present, the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to increase, but superimposed on the winter due to environmental protection and the production restrictions of the Winter Olympics, the overall supply of electrolytic aluminum is not relaxed
.
On the other hand, approaching the Spring Festival, downstream processing enterprises gradually took a holiday in advance, and the demand side formed a large bearishness
.
The price of alumina on the cost side rebounded slightly, the price of thermal coal continued to rise, the cost of electrolytic aluminum moved up, and the profitability of aluminum plants declined
.
At present, the market has rebounded after continuous weakening, and the concentrated stocking of downstream enterprises before the holiday is gradually approaching the end, and it is recommended to wait and see for
the time being.

In the overall nonferrous market bullish sentiment driven, aluminum prices slowed down, in addition, macro aspect, European production cuts are constantly troubled, supply concerns continue to interfere with prices, and the current domestic policy side is still favorable to consumption recovery, although years ago consumption performance or unsatisfactory, but short-term aluminum prices in the macro and policy support will continue to stabilize the performance, difficult to continue to fall, more to maintain high volatility, Shanghai aluminum main focus on 21200-21600 range
.