July 13 aluminum market noon comment

Overnight crude oil fell 8% to a new low, and Lun aluminum fell slightly to a new low, opening slightly higher at $
2361 today.
Shanghai aluminum opened high and low at night, turning to a new low, closing at 17410
.
Shanghai aluminum trading positions rose, and market sentiment improved
slightly.
Energy prices have fallen, and domestic consumption has begun to weaken
as the off-season approaches.
The trend of Shanghai aluminum has weakened and may fluctuate
low.
Upper pressure 20000, lower support 17000
.

On the supply side, the profit of alumina smelting is stable, the new expansion project is steadily landed, and although the import volume is suppressed, the domestic supply and demand of alumina is loosening; External interference factors subsided, superimposed on the landing of production capacity, it is expected that the output of electrolytic aluminum in July will be 3.
48 million tons, with the repair of the price ratio, net imports may increase month-on-month, but the continuous correction of aluminum prices has led to losses in some smelters
.
In terms of consumption, domestic consumption has entered the off-season, and overseas demand is facing downward pressure
.
Last week, domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks fell by 11,000 tons, and bonded zone stocks fell by 7,100 tons
.
Although the domestic supply side is expected to increase, smelting costs and overseas smelter production cuts and shutdowns may give aluminum price support, pay close attention to domestic consumption performance, and it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see
.