July 19 Shanghai aluminum afternoon comment

Macro: Gazprom informed some European customers that natural gas supplies have encountered force
majeure.

In terms of fundamentals, SMM stocks on the 18th reported 682,000 tons, down 15,000 tons from last Thursday; during the same period, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory was 111,000 tons, down 02,500 tons from last Thursday; exports remained high in June 2022, and China exported 607,400 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum in June, down about 70,000 tons from the previous month; the cumulative export from January to June was 3.
5091 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 34.
1%, In May, imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 188,500 tons, an increase of 13,200 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 896,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.
2%.

A year-on-year decrease of 24.
9
%.
On the 18th, spot demand was weak, and the premium fell rapidly; The narrowing of the refined waste spread and the high processing fee of aluminum rod have stimulated the consumption of primary aluminum, and the destocking of aluminum ingots is expected to accelerate
.

The Fed cooled and raised interest rates by 100 basis points, the dollar retreated, and Biden's trip to Saudi Arabia had limited results, and commodities sharply repaired their declines; After the rebound of aluminum prices, the fundamental performance is general, the upward support of the price is limited, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, the medium-term pressure still exists, and the operation is still dominated by short selling
.