June 16 aluminum market afternoon comment

Aluminum market afternoon comment: Shanghai aluminum closed at 19805 on Wednesday, down 1% from the previous trading day, mainly due to the continued fermentation of the expected strengthening of interest rate hikes, triggering a collective dive of nonferrous metals
.
At the same time, because the increase in the supply side of aluminum itself is still expected, it is relatively weak in the plate and is in the empty variety
of the plate.

Domestic supply side steadily rising, downstream demand weak rebound, yesterday announced real estate completion data continued to fall month-on-month, aluminum short-term profit exhaustion, spot premium strengthened, it is expected that with the introduction of relevant consumption favorable policies, and downstream replenishment demand is strong, aluminum prices below 20,000 after a short recovery may occur, but the price is still not optimistic
.

On the supply side, the production capacity of aluminum plants in Yunnan is gradually released, although the demand recovers month-on-month, but due to the relatively high growth rate of supply, the speed of aluminum destocking is still slow, the short-term demand is more favorable policies, the epidemic repair and other stimulus policies are concentrated release, the downstream peak season demand recovery is expected to be high, the situation of consumption recovery still needs to be verified, the recovery of actual demand still takes time, the weak downstream consumption is still difficult to support the large smooth destocking of aluminum, and it is expected that aluminum will remain weak and volatile
in the short term.
In the medium and long term, domestic supply has grown significantly, the market is pessimistic about real estate demand, oversupply and demand are significant, and aluminum prices may continue to be under pressure
.