June 16 Shanghai aluminum afternoon comment

Overnight, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2207 closed at 20025, up 110, and LME aluminum closed at 2615, up 57
.
The US interest rate hike in June landed, the follow-up interest rate hike is still expected to be strong, the domestic data in May is stable, and the short-term negative pressure is digested; Aluminum spot trading preference, inventory continues to deteriorate, and short-term prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate
.

On the macro front, the domestic economy recovered significantly in May, but the improvement was limited, of which real estate investment fell by 4% year-on-year from January to May, and improved month-on-month; On June 15, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to a range of 1.
50%-1.
75%, the largest rate hike since 1994, and said it was determined to fight inflation risks, while lowering economic growth expectations, raising inflation expectations, and raising forward interest rate expectations
.
U.
S.
retail sales data for May fell short of expectations, down 0.
3%
m/m.

In terms of fundamentals, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity once again entered the peak of starting production and resuming production, Liancheng Aluminum, Bai Mine and other enterprises started to resume production, with a total operating capacity of nearly 41 million tons, supply continued to rise, domestic demand was weak, but primary aluminum imports basically stopped, export demand was strong, and supply still made up for the
gap.
Repeated pledges in domestic warehouses have triggered a crisis of trust in the trade market, suspended long-term transactions, and plummeted trade liquidity; Spot trading is high, due to the large price decline
.