Latest! Iran's statement involves Biden, the US-Iran differences and nuclear weapons! Nearly 100 million barrels of Iranian crude oil ready to go?

According to CCTV news, on August 29, local time, Iranian President Lehi held a press conference
.
In response to Israel's exaggeration of Iran's nuclear program and other issues, Lehi said that the construction of a nuclear industry and the use of nuclear science are the rights of the Iranian people, but the development of nuclear weapons is not in
Iran's defense system plan.
Iran's nuclear technology is used in agriculture, oil, natural gas, medicine and other fields
.

Raisi stressed that Israel cannot prevent Iran's right to peaceful uses of nuclear technology through assassinations of Iranian scientists, while warning Israel against taking wrong actions
.

A reporter asked whether Raisi would go to New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly and whether he would meet
with US President Biden.
Leahy said that the same question was asked at previous press conferences, and the answer was no, and the answer is still no
.
Because such a meeting is of no benefit, the Iranian people have no interest
in such a meeting.

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Kanani: The differences between the United States and Iran mainly revolve around three aspects

On August 28, local time, a reporter from the Central Radio and Television Corporation interviewed Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Kanani on the progress of the Vienna talks on the Iranian nuclear issue, US-Iran relations, and the illegal bombing of Syria by the US military
.

Regarding the progress of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue, Kanani said that Iran is currently reviewing the views
put forward by the United States on the text of the final agreement of the Vienna talks on the Iranian nuclear agreement.
He pointed out that although the Vienna talks have made positive progress and the differences between the parties are gradually narrowing, the reality is that the remaining differences in the negotiations, although small in number, are very important in content, and whether a final agreement can be reached depends on the political will
of the United States.

Kanani said the differences between the United States and Iran mainly revolve around three aspects
.
First, the United States should ensure that it does not withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement again after returning to the agreement; Second, the United States should ensure that it earnestly fulfills its obligations under the JCPOA; Third, the United States should safeguard Iran's economic interests
.
In addition, he stressed that other parties should encourage the United States to accept Iran's legitimate demands, and the United States should not be subject to political pressure
from Israel in the negotiations.

Nearly 100 million barrels of Iranian crude oil can flood the market at any time?

According to ship tracking company Kpler, about 93 million barrels of Iranian crude oil and condensate are currently stored on ships in the Persian Gulf, near Singapore and near China, while Vortexa Ltd.
has an estimated holding capacity of 60 to 70 million barrels
.
In addition, Iran has a smaller onshore stockpile
.

According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, Iran's offshore crude oil reserves are comparable to the global average daily crude oil supply this year, while it took US President Joe Biden six months
to release about 180 million barrels of oil from the SPR.

John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services Pte, said: "Iran has built up a sizable tanker fleet that could soon hit the market
.
”

Still, he said, it could take "a little time"
to resolve insurance and shipping issues, as well as spot and regular sales after sanctions.

Goldman Sachs is skeptical of recent developments in the nuclear deal, saying that even if a deal is reached, implementation
will not begin until 2023.

In this regard, Sun Zhenyu, research manager of Jinqiao Chemical Industry, said that whether Iran really has 100 million barrels of floating storage is not the core of the problem, because whether it is 93 million barrels that Kpler believes or 60-70 million barrels that Vortexa believes or 100 million barrels that the IEA believes of, as long as Iran is officially exempted, it will have an impact
on the market.
"Compared with the total amount, we believe that the word 'anytime' may be the key factor determining the instantaneous impact energy, and whether it can 'flood into the market at any time' is currently
questionable.
" Even if Iran claims to have built a large shipping fleet, at 60 million barrels, 2 months, 1 million barrels per day of additional crude oil is difficult to absorb by a single customer, even in energy-strapped Europe, not to mention shipping insurance and other issues may take time
.
”

In terms of fundamentals, according to SDIC Anxin Futures analyst Li Yunxu, from a medium- and long-term perspective, global oil demand will continue to grow slowly in 2023, but non-OPEC supply will face a certain decline after the official implementation of the EU maritime oil embargo on Russia at the beginning of the year, so the trend of calling on OPEC (global demand - non-OPEC supply) to continue to rise is relatively certain
.

On the one hand, for OPEC, the current active production reduction countries have entered the final stage of the agreement to increase production, next year's output growth space will be much smaller than this year, therefore, without considering the release of Iranian production, next year's OPEC production will gradually flatten, supply and demand gap again, comprehensive three major institutions monthly report, next year's four quarters inventory is estimated to be -390,000 barrels / day, 30,000 barrels / day, -710,000 barrels / day, -1.
42 million barrels / day
。 If Iran's marginal increment above 1 million barrels per day returns to the market, OPEC production expectations will be significantly raised next year, and the medium- and long-term inventory inflection point of crude oil will also be confirmed
.

On the other hand, the rapid changes in Iran's output caused by the sanctions imposed on Iran or the lifting of sanctions on Iran by Europe and the United States are often accompanied by the adjustment
of the output policies of other OPEC oil-producing countries 。 In July 2010, the United States introduced the Comprehensive Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act, and Saudi Arabia began to increase production and expand exports rapidly from July 2010, and the production growth rate reached 1.
5 million b/d by the beginning of 2012; After the signing of the Iranian nuclear agreement, in 2016, one year after Iran's production returned to the market, OPEC+ began a new round of production cuts and Iran was exempted; Iranian production fell by 1 million b/d in the second half of 2018, while Saudi Arabia increased production by 800,000 b/d in the
same period.

Looking forward to the future market, Tong Chuan of Galaxy Futures Energy Investment Research Department said that if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict ends, Russia's supply loss gradually weakens, the risk premium on the supply side of crude oil will fall sharply, for shale oil companies with hedging positions, the futures profit in the process of falling oil prices will make up for the loss of spot production, and there will be no large-scale production reduction in the short term, and the possibility of crude oil supply and demand turning into excess is higher, so oil prices still have the possibility
of falling.

Chen Tong, an analyst at Yide Futures, believes that in the medium term, on the macro side, the pressure of the Federal Reserve to curb price increases through interest rates continues to exist
.
The more aggressive austerity policies adopted by major Western central banks have limited economic activity, and global recession expectations continue to heat
up.
Geographically, the EU will impose a ban on most of Russia's crude oil exports from December this year, and about two months later, the EU will take similar measures against naphtha and other products, but it is still doubtful
whether it can finally land.
In terms of supply and demand, with the arrival of the peak oil demand season in the fourth quarter, it is expected that oil inventories will still be difficult to increase
significantly.
In summary, the game of macro and micro factors in the crude oil market has led to increased price volatility, the direction of crude oil prices is still unclear, and investors still need to pay attention to the actual changes in OPEC+ production, including Iran and Russia
.