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London copper fell slightly last week, and the main Shanghai copper contract closed lower
.
At the macro level, the minutes of the January interest rate meeting released by the Federal Reserve in February were not as hawkish as previously expected, which made the dollar once show a weak pattern of volatility, but since then due to the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the market safe-haven demand has been significantly boosted, and the dollar has also strengthened, and due to the US announcement of sanctions on the North West 2 natural gas pipeline project, the already relatively tight European natural gas supply may be aggravated, which will directly lead to continued high inflation
.
On the domestic front, the signs that monetary policy will be biased are becoming more pronounced, which may help the return
of domestic and foreign prices in the future.
On the supply side, disruptions abated
in February for domestic ports.
For example, the Erenhot Port also resumed copper concentrate import business from midnight on January 27, but the disturbance of community road congestion affecting copper concentrate production and transportation in the Las Bambas mine in December will be reflected in the import volume in February and March, and on the whole, the overall import volume in March may decline
slightly.
In terms of inventories, global explicit stocks continued to accumulate in February, with the previous inventory continuing to show accumulation of 118,700 tons to 15.
90 tons
in February.
In terms of LME inventory, it showed a destocking of 12,800 tons to 74,900 tons, and there was a certain divergence
between internal and external inventory.
Overall, the current inventory level is still relatively low, and the relatively low inventory may also make copper prices prone to rise and fall
.
In terms of imports, in February, the import profit window did not open, and the internal and external prices continued to maintain the import loss, which will naturally lead to a continuous decline in import volume in March
.
On the whole, there is no significant increase on the supply side, and there may also be a situation on the demand side that the peak season is approaching due to the further severity of the epidemic, but the actual consumption improvement is not as obvious as expected, and overall, copper prices in March may still be dominated by a volatile pattern
.
