Macro and supply resonance Shanghai rubber is weak and difficult to change

Spot market: Today, the Tianjiao market rose slightly, and Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated
at a low level.
Dry rubber offers tended to rise in a narrow range, whole milk rose by about 1.
78% from the previous trading day, and latex offers remained stable
overall.
The trend of chemicals is weak, the fundamental correction tone of the rubber market is slow, the downstream demand side is difficult to see a surge, and the purchase is general under the rise in tire operating rate; Butadiene-driven synthesis downturn on tianjiao emotional support void; Spot trading wait-and-see black series trend weak
.
It is expected that the stalemate in the market after Tianjiao will be repeated
.

At present, the mainstream reference quotation in the Shanghai rubber market: the reference quotation of East China state-owned 16 full latex is 11450 yuan / ton; The quotation of Tai San tobacco tablets is 13800 yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L quotation is around
12200 yuan / ton.

The start of all-steel tires continued to rise slightly month-on-month, the impact of environmental protection on tire companies has weakened, many starts have increased significantly, some enterprises in the sample are close to full production, the supply is sufficient compared with the previous period, and only a few best-selling specifications and models are affected by the supply of abrasives and orders
.
Semi-steel tire starts continued to edge higher month-on-month, and individual enterprises in the sample started operations close to full production
.
At the same time, it is understood that the start of some rotational enterprises outside the sample has also increased compared with the previous period, mostly around 80
%.
In the near future, the overall goods of manufacturers are acceptable, and the output is given priority to supply the export market
.
The manufacturer's inventory is more reasonable, and the price increase trend is similar to that of the all-steel tire market, which has been suspended in recent days, and I have not heard of new price increase news
.

According to ANRPC data, in the first 8 months of this year, more than half of the months saw a year-on-year increase in production of more than 5%.

In terms of demand, heavy-duty truck sales are not weak in the summer off-season, and many factors will promote heavy-duty truck sales to a record high
this year.

The fundamental situation of Shanghai rubber has been very clear
.
On the supply side, there are no weather problems this year and the deliberate hoarding of inventories by large industrial players; This year, production capacity has increased, yields have increased, and the supply pressure is quite large
.