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Trade Service
On Tuesday, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell continuously, closing down 475 yuan / ton overnight, down 2.
66%.
Lun aluminum closed at $2360/ton, down $17/ton, or 0.
72%.
At present, the domestic supply is growing steadily and the consumption performance is not good, considering that the current aluminum price is basically close to the immediate cost line, it is expected to be mainly volatile, although there is news of production cuts overseas, but considering the news of interest rate hikes continuously, commodities are under pressure as a whole, and it is recommended to treat them in the short term
.
In terms of supply, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has reached 41.
05 million tons, and Yunnan, Guangxi, Gansu and other regions still have room for growth, supply pressure is still there, but considering that the current aluminum price is close to the industry average cost line, 25% of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is in the loss, although the short-term loss has not caused the supply side to reduce production, but if the price continues to fall, it is not ruled out that some regions may resume production postponed or even reduced
.
In terms of consumption, the trend of weakening demand in the off-season of traditional domestic consumption is gradually apparent
.
Considering that July and August are the small off-season of the industry, it is expected that the domestic aluminum downstream start will remain low
.
In terms of inventory, the destocking of domestic social library data slowed down, and there were signs of accumulation in many places, and LME inventories continued to decline
.
Overseas demand peaked and declined, and trade premiums in Europe and the United States began the sixth consecutive week of decline, in line with our previous expectations
.
LME stocks continued to fall to 340,000 tons, continuing to update the lowest value since 2001, and the decline in inventories was still reflected in the cancellation of warehouse receipts continuing to leave Hong Kong, and the discount narrowed to $12.
75/tonne, and it is still necessary to pay close attention to whether there will be a signal
that the available inventory will bottom.
In addition, the European Commission announced that the suspension of anti-dumping duties on Chinese imports of aluminum sheet, strip and foil products ended on July 12, 2022, and the decline in external demand had a negative impact
on the demand for domestic export orders in the later period.
Overall, overseas supply and demand have both declined, but concerns about lower demand have exceeded supply contraction, and domestic supply and demand have both picked up, but from a slight recovery
from supply pressure exceeding demand.
On the whole, the fundamental pressure of the aluminum market continues to increase, superimposed on the macro bears, aluminum prices continue to break down, and continue to pay attention to the continuous replenishment of the spot side
.
