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Copper prices in the LME rose as high as $7,879 / ton, but quickly fell back after hitting a two-week high, and finally fell 1.
27% from before the holiday to close at $7,462 / ton
.
On the macro front, the US non-farm payrolls recorded 263,000 after the quarterly adjustment in September, higher than the expected 250,000 and lower than the previous value of 315,000, the smallest increase since April 2021, and the US unemployment rate recorded 3.
5% in September, lower than the expected and previous value of 3.
70%.
The US ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 50.
9 in September, below expectations of 52.
2 and the previous reading of 52.
8, the lowest since May 2020 and close to complete stagnation, mainly due to the third contraction
in manufacturing orders in four months.
On the news front, OPEC representatives said OPEC+ may consider cutting production by more than 1 million b/d
.
Earlier, institutional surveys showed OPEC oil production rose 210,000 b/d in September from August to 29.
81 million b/d, the highest level
since April 2020.
In terms of stocks, copper stocks in the previous period of this week reported 30,459 tons, down 6,438 tons from last week; LME copper stocks were reported at 143775 tonnes, up 8,525 tonnes from pre-holiday levels; COMEX copper stocks were reported at 44,434 tonnes, down 497 tonnes
from pre-holiday levels.
Stocks in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone reported 39,000 tons
.
The current trend of copper is mainly affected
by two factors: macro demand and supply disturbances.
Macro demand is now reflected in global recession expectations and the Fed's interest rate hikes to tighten the money supply
.
The good US non-farm payrolls data on October 6 and 7 may continue to prompt the Fed to take more aggressive interest rate hikes, which also caused a sharp retreat during the copper holiday
.
The Fed's increased hawkishness indicates that the determination to fight inflation remains unchanged, and the downward pressure on copper prices is greater
.
However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, inflation trading logic still exists, and Europe is about to enter winter, and the speculation of the energy crisis is expected to reopen
.
The macro is currently intertwined with long and short, and there is a risk of
stagflation.
