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The main force of Shanghai aluminum closed at 18980 on Monday, up 0.
42%
from the previous session.
Recently market trading global macro pressure demand is expected to weaken, based on domestic and foreign policy differentiation, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will continue to be relatively stronger than Lun aluminum
.
On the macro front, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 53, the lowest since June 2020, less than the previous reading and expectations, JPMorgan economists cut the US mid-year economic growth forecast, and the recession haze remains
.
Domestically, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.
7 in June, stimulated by various policies, above the boom-dry line for the first time since March and the highest since
June 2021.
The macro bearish sentiment has eased in stages, and the expectation of stable growth of the domestic economy has been enhanced, providing some impetus
for the rebound of aluminum prices.
On the supply side, under the stimulus of government support and the decline in electricity prices in some regions, the new production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises will continue, and the production areas are still mainly concentrated in Yunnan and Guangxi, and the growth rate of operating capacity will slow down, but output is still in a
rapid upward channel.
In terms of demand, with the arrival of the off-season consumption of traditional industries, new orders for building profiles have decreased significantly, and although industrial profiles such as solar photovoltaic frames can contribute to the increase in consumption, it is difficult to make up for the gap in the reduction of building profiles; The loss of aluminum exports, the seasonal weakening of export orders, the expectation of weakening overseas macro demand and other factors will adversely affect the later aluminum exports, and the risk of decline in aluminum exports is greater
.
On the whole, due to the weakening of demand under macro pressure due to the trading logic, domestic and foreign aluminum prices are still moving down, but the cost and overseas low inventory problems need to be vigilant
.
In the medium and long term, domestic supply has grown significantly, the market is pessimistic about real estate demand, oversupply and demand are significant, and aluminum prices may continue to be under pressure
.
